WSJ: “John Kerry’s lead over President Bush has shrunk slightly among the 16 battleground states, according to the latest Zogby Interactive poll, conducted June 1-6. Mr. Kerry now has leads in 11 states, compared with 12 in the poll released May 24. Mr. Bush leads in five of the 16 states. Most leads are within the margins of error, which range from +/- 2.1% to +/-4.5 %.”
“Independent candidate Ralph Nader collected no more than 3% of the vote in any battleground.
This analysis presumes that the other 34 states and the District of Columbia will go the way they did in 2000. If that holds true, Mr. Kerry would get 296 electoral votes, while Mr. Bush would get 242.
Mr. Kerry is ahead in 11 states with a total of 124 electoral votes and Mr. Bush has the lead in five states with 53 electoral votes. Results from all states fall within the margins of error, with three exceptions: Arkansas and Tennessee, where Mr. Bush leads, and Washington, where Mr. Kerry is ahead. Iowa, which slipped from Mr. Bush in the latest Zogby survey, has gone to Mr. Kerry in other polls, but a close race there is to be expected. In 2000, Democratic candidate Al Gore carried Iowa by less than one percentage point and other polls have shown Mr. Kerry’s lead narrowing.”
Battleground States Poll – June 7, 2004