Presidential Election Indicators

usa_today_logo

We spend a lot of time discussing various market indicators, and how to balance some against others when they are in apparent conflict.

So when I came across Dan Froomkin‘s take of USA Today six ‘reliable’ presidential-election indicators, I simply had to reproduce them:

Economic formula suggest Bush wins;
Low approval-rating precedent says Kerry wins;
War-president precedent says Bush wins;
Ohio is a bellwether: Tossup;
Northern Democrats don’t stand a chance. Bush wins;
Kerry is taller; Kerry wins

The fact that these disagree with each other makes them all the more amusing . . .

Sources:
Election-predicting tools point both ways
Depending on which criteria you use, either Bush or Kerry is a lock to win in November
Susan Page
USA TODAY, June 24, 2004
http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20040624/6314204s.htm

White House Briefing
Dan Froomkin
Washington Post, Thursday, Jun 24, 2004; 11:50 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/politics/administration/whbriefing/

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. BOPnews commented on Jun 24

    The Presidential Indicator says . . .

    It was one of those odd coincidences: I came across so many separate Presidential indicators today that I decided to gather them all in one place. The most comprehensive grouping was in USA Today, which discusses six ‘reliable’ presidential-election in…

  2. BOPnews commented on Jun 24

    The Presidential Indicator says . . .

    It was one of those odd coincidences: I came across so many separate Presidential indicators today that I decided to gather them all in one place. The most comprehensive grouping was in USA Today, which discusses six ‘reliable’ presidential-election in…

  3. BOPnews commented on Jun 24

    The Presidential Indicator says . . .

    It was one of those odd coincidences: I came across so many separate Presidential indicators today that I decided to gather them all in one place. The most comprehensive grouping was in USA Today, which discusses six ‘reliable’ presidential-election in…

  4. BOPnews commented on Jun 24

    The Presidential Indicator says . . .

    It was one of those odd coincidences: I came across so many separate “Presidential election indicators” today that I decided to gather them all in one place for our blogging pleasure. The most comprehensive grouping was in USA Today, which…

  5. BOPnews commented on Jun 24

    The Presidential Indicator says . . .

    It was one of those odd coincidences: I came across so many separate “Presidential election indicators” today that I decided to gather them all in one place for our blogging pleasure. The most comprehensive grouping was in USA Today, which…

  6. BOPnews commented on Jun 24

    The Presidential Indicator says . . .

    It was one of those odd coincidences: I came across so many separate “Presidential election indicators” today that I decided to gather them all in one place for your blogging pleasure. The most comprehensive grouping was in USA Today, which…

  7. PoliBlog commented on Jun 26

    Fun with Indicators

    Barry Ritholtz has a list of numerous presidential election indicators over at the Big Picture. The outcome is mixed….

Read this next.

Posted Under