Presidential futures as a lagging indicator

Yet another flaw of these futures markets: In addition to the basic premise being faulty (that Markets predict the future), and the infintesmal amount of money at risk, there’s another basic problem with them: They are lagging indicators.

This is likely due to their over-reliance on polls, which tell you what a group of people said 3-5 days ago (or longer). Hardly the source of wisdom about the future . . .

click for larger chart
Pres_futures_101204

via Iowa Electronic Markets

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  1. BOPnews commented on Oct 12

    Presidential futures as a lagging indicator

    Yet another flaw of these futures: In addition to the basic premise being faulty (that Markets predict the future), and the infintesmal amount of money at risk, there’s another basic problem with them: They are lagging indicators. This is likely…

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