Here’s an excerpt:
"The bottom line is that the 2004 rally stole some gains from 2005. We got way ahead of ourselves last month, and the past few weeks have been a process of working off that excess bullishness. Today could quite possibly be the denouement of that process.
These factors — plus too much salivation over the impact of Social Security money (for the fees but more importantly for the rich inflow of funds) and its positive impact on the market — should be heartening to the bulls.
The next leg up can begin once this consolidation runs its course. I’m looking for 1166 on the S&P, 10,370 on the Dow and a possible drop to 1975 on the Nasdaq. I am advising clients to begin scaling into long positions as we approach those levels. Scaling in avoids "picking a point," which is somewhat random. Deploying all your capital at once is a win-lose proposition. Scaling allows you to be wrong or early, just not fatally so. So we scale into the market in stages. By doing this, I try to capture much of the upside, but with as little risk as possible."
Note that this is a shorter term (3 – 6 months) forecast; For a longer term (and rather bearish) perspective, see our 2005 Market Forecast
UPDATE: JANUARY 21, 2005 6:31 AM
Real Money has made the full article available at Yahoo!
I like when they do that . . . Time sensitive Information shoujld be freed up on a delayed basis.