Purcell & Prediction Markets

You may recall that I previously mentioned Chris Masse’s informative Prediction Markets Vortal.

Chris does alot of research into prediction markets, and has assembled an awesome collection of data and links at his meta-page.  If you want more info on the subject, its a good place to start.

Chris and I have been having a debate about the efficacy of prediction markets; He was nice enough to make some informative comments about the Michael Jackson verdict, as well as sending us along another chart:

Announcement stating P. Purcell’s MWD resignation on/before 30 June 2005
click for larger chart

via Intrade

Let me add that although neither of these two outcomes support Chris’ views, he did not hesitate to pass along the info. That’s the sign of a scholar, who’s interest lies in furthering the debate in order to determine the workings of market mechanism — as well as a gentleman. 

I want to thank him for the pointer to the Purcell chart and for being such a good sport about this. (And how could it be anything but French Champagne?).

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. Chris. F. Masse commented on Jun 14

    Hello Barry Ritholtz,

    When it comes to assessing whether some official will quit under pressure, it is the second time that prediction markets fail us. On the link that I provide above, you will find the graph of the George Tenet futures market —a miss.

    We, guys in the field, should reflect on that. I will soon.

    Best regards,

    Chris. F. Masse

  2. The Big Picture commented on Jan 11

    Why Prediction Markets Fail

    Over the years, I have been critical of prediction and futures markets. In particular, the specific ways certain parties misuse them (i.e., politics). However, I am a big believer that markets can generate valuable economic and investing data that can …

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