I did a video interview yesterday with Forbes’ online unit (you can see the whole thing here). This is what I look like after too little sleep and too much food:
click for video:
Incidentally, Forbes’ Scott Reeves has a column explaining some overlooked factors about the Real Estate boom (its worth reading). He quotes a Merrill analyst who — somewhat belatedly– discussed what we’ve been saying for quite some time now: Real Estate is the prime driver the US economy:
"We find that the red-hot housing sector alone, which typically represents just 5% of the total economy, accounted for an astounding 50% of the overall growth in the U.S. economy by the first half of this year, and more than half of the private payroll jobs created since fall 2001 were in housing related sectors," Merrill Lynch (nyse: MER – news – people ) economists Kathleen Bostjancic and David Rosenberg said in a economic commentary.
"We argue this represents an unhealthy and disproportionate share of economic growth. The over-reliance on residential investment leaves the economy very vulnerable if housing demand and prices cool–prices do not need to even fall, just a slowing in the pace of home price appreciation would have a noticeable negative impact on economic growth–not unlike the fallout following the frenzied tech over-investment in the late 1990s."
Interesting stuff . . .
Awaiting Housing’s Big Chill
August 23, 2005
Don’t Believe The Hype
Forbes.com, 08.22.05, 3:29 PM ET