A quick heads up:
I will be on Kudlow & Company tonite at 5pm, along with portfolio manager Michael Chren.
Its for 2 segments, and the topics will obviously include the Fed, Interest Rates, Real Estate and the Economy.
My recent call about Real Estate cooling and a possible Fed induced recession is likely to attract some attention from Larry.
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UPDATE: August 9, 2005 7:43pm
The remote studio is such an odd place to be: You sit in what is essentially a large closet, with a trio of Klieg lights a coupla feet from your face — and no make up or hair person (and I could use all the help I can get!). Its hot, the lights are bright, I’m squinting, on top of being a bit tired (bags under the eyes) — I look like a total stoner.
Here’s what the closet remote studio looks like:
click for much larger high res photos
That chair is where the magic happens!
The view from the seat — note that the klieg lights are OFF:
All things considered, I was happy I didn’t look too sweaty and/or greasy. In TVland, this is politely referred to as "Shine," as in "lets see if we can remove some of that shine from this fat bastard’s forehead."
Ask Larry about these two charts:
US Empolyment rate:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO/11/10yrs
US Number of unemployed persons:
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/fedstl/unemploy
Remember, Government Deficit Spending acts like a giant boat anchor on the economy because Government borrowing takes money out of the private sector that otherwise would’ve been spent much more wisely.
Also, ask Kudlow about how many “non-seasonally adjusted” jobs were created last month… According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 88,000 jobs were lost in the US last month. The number Kudlow keeps touting of 207,000 jobs created is on a “seasonally adjusted” basis….
I can’t believe you let Larry so off-handedly dismiss the NON core components of cpi, like they can’t possibly have any inflationary effect on the economy. Is there ANYTHING we use or consume or get serviced by that doesn’t pay for energy or food? Can I send him my petrol credit card bill?
Core CPI is just another way of manipulating the data. It is pure BS. They exclude things like energy- that actually are necessary to your life. In other words, clothing may be cheap because of outsourced workers in China but energy and food and healthcare are more important (to the individual) than clothing and technology. I find Kudlow’s antics funny. Im actually starting to like him. Yet, theres one thing I can say for sure about him. The greatest bull market of all time will begin when Kudlows bearish.
I didnt know what to make of that — NON core components — on the spot, so I stuck to what I had planned to say.
You have 30 seconds at most to make a few points before the subject changes — I wanted to hit a few key items before commercial
Yes, of course energy and food matter — we look at CPI ex F&E is only to reduce monthly volatility (a moving average can accomplish the same thing).
Looking at the core over a year provides no insight