Let’s try this again:
GWBridge and Weather permitting, I am going to be on CNBC’s Morning Call at 10:45am today, discussing all those lovely charts from Cult of the Bear part II with the lovely Liz Claman. It will be interesting to see how those charts come out on TV.
If you want to play the home game and follow along, here are 4 charts we will be discussing:
click for larger charts!
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100 Year Dow
1966-1982 Trading Range
S&P500 P/E Multiple Expansion
4 Year Presidential Cycle
Keep your fingers crossed . . .
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UPDATE January 19, 2005 11:42am
Almost got bumped twice — first by W, then by OBL
I don’t know if the 4th chart showed up, but CNBC seemed to do a good chart with the other 3 . . .
Can’t resist a suggestion for a new title for your 100 year Dow chart.
How Now Brown Dow?!!!!!!!!
Hope your TV appearance went well.
FYI–Your Cult of the Bear is now a 3-part link on the Prophet founder’s TA weblog.
Barry making a crash call
He’s got a series of periodic charts that say that this is they year that the bulls get gored……
Looks like you have some company. Knight research is also forecasting a 20-25% drop this year. Here is the link to their report
http://www.knight.com/EquityMarkets/pdfs/AnnualForecast.pdf
barry,
as usual, very smooth. i was pleased to hear you thank liz by name at the end of the segment, i assume you know how very important that is and how much the anchors appreciate that (and notice when, like jack welsh just did, they say a generic “thank you so much”).
-][
Why is no one commenting on the huge “at the close” transactions yesterday? No one else thought that was just a little bizzare?
BTW- Barry I know you don’t care about the day to day stuff, but EVERYTHING is going up… what to make of it all?
energy vs. transports I really don’t understand.
Barry, How did it go? I unfortuneately was unable to watch. Did you get attacked, scoffed or rebuffed?
I once heard that an analyst calling for a Bull market gets all the coverage he wants; a Bear gets nothing and pushed aside as a nut.
Now we see fundementals pointing to a bear market, it is what it is so I don’t call it “nutty” right to be cautious.
But it just doesn’t sell copy. “Mr. Hearst, there’s no war war in Cuba.” “Sir you send the pictures I’ll produce the war.”
Works for TV too. “You provide the Bull and we’ll provide the rally.”
I wasn’t able to catch this, but that historical market P/E graph is really interesting. I’m curious on your take there – is there a good reason why we should be paying higher multiples now, or is the market due for some major correction?
-AvgJoe
Here’s the answer to my own question in case anyone else was wondering what happened yesterday…
Nasdaq Glitch Results in Incorrect Quotes
By MICHAEL J. MARTINEZ, AP Business Writer 42 minutes ago
NEW YORK – Shares of AMR Corp. closed up 16 cents at $20.55 Thursday. Or were they up $1.84?
A computer glitch at the Nasdaq Stock Market left erroneous stock price swings on major online financial news Web sites and brokerage sites all day Thursday. While nearly impossible to assess the full extent of the damage, the technical snafu created incorrect price changes for approximately 1,500 stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange and American Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq confirmed.
According to an e-mail alert sent to Nasdaq customers late Thursday afternoon, a computer glitch occurred at approximately 5:50 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday, when 16,669 transactions involving NYSE- and AMEX-listed stocks that had been made at 9:50 a.m. were reposted to the consolidated list. In many computer systems, those transactions overwrote the final closing price posted earlier that afternoon.
Barry on TV!
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tsc/StreetWatch/index.html?channel=343&movieid=20731
OK, the crowd here is way above my pay grade, but I don’t understand the bottom part of the fourth graph.
Does that mean that without inflation, the only way to make real money with a portfolio choice limited only to long/bonds/cash is to sell in the upper parts of the cycle, and be in cash the rest of the time?