Consensus for tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payroll is pretty rich: 250,000 new jobs. I think that number is high (more on this tomorrow), as well as Productivity data (more on that Monday).
As we await tomorrow morning’s data, let’s take a run at some of the Cleveland Fed’s monthly chartbook. They remain quite instructive:
click for larger charts
This is the worst jobs creation recovery since WWII ended
Various Unemployment Measures
(note that the full measure of U-6 is 8.75%)
How has Labor Participation Rate changed since 2000 ?
Employment Ratio (Civilian Population)
Economic Research & Data
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CLEVELAND
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CLEVELAND, January 2006