Last week, I mentioned I was long IBM. I am now out of that IBM trade I mentioned at $83.25 ($83.15 slippage!); It could see 83.75, but I am not looking to be too cute — this was only a trade.
I also added a short: Germany — using the iShare ETF EWG.
Other than Japan, which iShares do you currently like? Kudlow cut your off when you started mentioning a few earlier this week.
Hi, Mr Ritholz.
Living here in Poland, I’m thinking about going short on DAX futures too, but first we should see total euphoria after DAX 6000 pts breaking in the nearest future. I’m waiting patiently with my finger on the trigger, ready to action.
Regards, Your reader P.M.
Shorting Germany? I have no current position or even an opinion for that matter but FWIW I look at a lot of charts every day including many ETFs. And for whatever reason, it seems that in the last two weeks or so, a lot of money seems to be flowing into European ETFs; both the broad (EFA and EZU) and country-specific versions. Asia and LM – not so much. Or perhaps that’s exactly why you’re shorting – some sort of overbought, blow-off top? But in that case, why Germany? You could probably get the same result with even more liquidity using EFA.
LM should be LA (Latin America) in previous post.
Does anyone know of an ETF that is correlated to the USD ?
I actually like the idea of posting your trades for everyone to discuss.
I am fading the close….no one will be holding with Iran situation hovering over weekend.
Only option is funds. http://www.RydexFunds.com
Strengthening Dollar – RYSBX
Weakening Dollar – RYWBX
Great thanks. Wish they had options on this, though.
Is that Pimco’s Bill Gross? I’m honored.
EKC,
I don’t trade currency but we’re in the midst of
hiking interest rates. There are good odds that
we’ll hike even in August.
That drives the value of the dollar up.
There’s a secular trend in the dollar but that secular
trend will have cyclical trends in it. I’m guessing
the dollar is stable or will rise in the coming weeks.
Again – I don’t trade currency & holding onto gold
is good enough of a hedge against the dollar
crashing for me.
-Mike
No it isn’t “Wrong Way Gross”. I’m actually a little better at making the calls than him. Of course, I don’t have a zillion dollars of bonds under management with zero total return for the last three years and no prospects for positive turns into the foreseeable future because the trend ain’t my friend. How about that run-on sentence?
Seriously, I’m no forex trader but I’d be really surprised if you can’t buy dollar options. You might want to look into it. Nearly every futures market also has options on the futures contracts.
So Mike, gold is your hedge against the dollar. What is your hedge against gold? Looking mighty toppy along with all of the other commodities.
Time to go watch the NCAA and have a few cocktails with the crew.
Mr. Big… it’s not fair for you to have word-cross-out capability and not give us the same privilege.
C’mon… play fair!
Barry, I bought at 81.65 and got stopped out w/ IBM too…Its only a trade, better we made money than lost…
B-
I always appreciate your comments. Very well thought out and often a bit contrarian.
I have been seeing the same thing with gold and the other commodities. Charts look very toppy. Wed-Fri action in gold, when the dollar was being SMASHED and headlines were all in favor, was pathetic. M-Tu was a technical bounce off oversold condition. A sucker’s rally. Mr. Copper saved the week and that was due to some engineered rally from PD’s CEO comments.
No hedge to gold’s hedge. I’ll buy when it corrects fully. Charts still say good possibility it’s going to the 500 level or thereabouts.
The U.S. can’t possibly let the $USD crater now. Now, when the economy is on the verge of slowing? Leave China and Japan holding all those USTs? No way.
See, I have serious posts too.
I did not see IBM on the charts so congrats on a good trade. EWG looks like a perfect short on the charts and that you sold at very nearly the exact top. Of course now that I agree with you you better tighten up your buy stops. Seriously, great blog and great comments from the readers. I agree with Mark above on gold. There seems to be some seasonality with gold bottoming out in early May (look at charts for last few years), but again I probably have jinxed it by putting it in print. Thanks Barry.