Who do you trust?

I get some fabulous and informative email.

This one was from someone who was wondering about why they should follow my longer term calls if I missed the last short term move:

if i shouldn’t take your word on a
short term trade, how is it that i
should believe your long-term outlook? 

I found that email to be fascinating, so I responded in this manner:

1.  You shouldn’t take anyone’s word on anything — you should do your own homework.

2.  If you are going to rely on commentators for insight, I would
imagine you would rather rely on someone who is willing to admit error
than someone who is stubborn and/or arrogant.

3. You should go back and look at my many calls over the past 3 years.
Once you do that, and see the track record, you might be more inclined
to put some weight on my longer term opinions. (Of course, this would involve some work on your part)

p.s.   Read the Apprentice Investor series . . .

What else can you say to an email like that, other than:  "Sorry, I’m not infallible"

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. Mark commented on Mar 17

    Did you not call the move off the basing action in November and pick the week that it would top out? (mid-December) Did you not call for this rally but by your admission you were a bit “early” in entering and got stopped out? Those last two look pretty good to me. I have been early PLENTY OF TIMES. I take the loss, re-enter and get it right. What more do some people want?

  2. Uncle Bob commented on Mar 17

    1. You shouldn’t take anyone’s word on anything — you should do your own homework.

    Nuff said!

    I’m a firm believer that you do not get what you do not pay for, however you may not get what you do pay for!

  3. Jason commented on Mar 17

    What a clown – to abdicate all responsibility and THEN point the finger is doubly boorish.

  4. B commented on Mar 19

    Very short term trading is not for more than 1 in 100 people at best (A guess not a statistic.) unless you have an iron stomach. Taking 1-5% off the table is an art and most people shouldn’t even attempt it. So, when someone posts a very short term idea, you should decide if you have the stomach for such a strategy and if you even have the skill to execute it. ie, Why are you taking the trade, goals, risk management, stop levels, target profit level, etc. Not whether it is right or wrong BECAUSE short term trading is not about being right. If I have a trading system that is 50% right but my trading stops are tight and my losses are half of my gains, I can make alot of money.

    That is a concept investors do not understand and even fewer have the stomach to actually enforce within themselves once they are in the trade. Short term trading is all psychology and I would guess there are very few people who post on this board who have the psychology to do it time and again. True traders have a certain psychological profile. If you cannot take a loss time and time and time again, you should fuggedaboutit.

    Personally, I wouldn’t get too caught up in the “Big Picture” if a short term call was off. Short term calls are often wrong from even the best traders who ever roamed the earth. Real money is made in the long term.

    Anyone see this moose video? At the bottom of the story is a camera link to a Windows Media Player video of a moose sitting in a car.

    http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/
    articles/2006/03/17/moose_lands_in_front_seat_of_car/

  5. Mitchell commented on Mar 19

    [You should go back and look at my many calls over the past 3 years. Once you do that, and see the track record, you might be more inclined to put some weight on my longer term opinions. (Of course, this would involve some work on your part)]

    BR: Are your “past calls” collected anywhere on the site?

    Thanks,

    MD

  6. dsquared commented on Mar 20

    [“What else can you say to an email like that, other than: “Sorry, I’m not infallible”]

    You can say “Freddie Uncle Charlie Kilo Off, my friend. See You Next Tuesday”.

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