A quick review of some recent data points:
• Major retailers have dissappointed, either in revs, profits or forecasts: Wal-mart, Best Buy, Circuit City, etc.
• Transports, including FedEx, Yellow RoadWay, and Landstar, have all warned of reduced tonnage volume, profit pressure, and poor outlook.
• Dr. Copper, the metal with the PHD in economics, is now at 6 month lows.
• December Philly Fed survey consensus was +4.0, down from from 5.1 in November. It came in at a negative
since Apr ’03’s -6.8) New orders negative for a second month
in a row, Backlogs plummeted;
• Economic growth in the U.S. slowed in the third quarter to a 2%
annual rate, dragged down by the biggest decline in home building in 15
• NAHB’s index of builder confidence for
sales of new, single-family homes slipped in December to near its lowest level in 15 years; The large inventory of unsold homes has not been reduced.
• New Home Building Permits, which foreshadow future activity, fell 3% in November from October and were 31.3% lower
than a year earlier.
Is this what a soft landing looks like? (We think not)
The slow motion slow down continues . . .
UPDATE: December 23, 2006, 11:17am
Hey, wontcha look at that : Nouriel Roubini offered up a similar list: