Seven Big Numbers for 2007

Andrew J. Burkly of by Brown Brothers Harriman & Co does a nice "numerical" preview each year.  Here are his Seven Big Numbers for 2007:

The all-time high in the S&P 500 Index is 1552.

2007 is year 3 of the presidential election cycle, the best performing of the four-year cycle.

Flows into world funds exceeded domestic funds by $122 billion last year (through Nov.).

The peak in the 10-year Treasury yield in 2006 was 5.25%.

$45 is a critical level for crude oil to defend.

The lower end of the trading range in spot gold is $550.

A break of 80 would imply a longer-term secular decline for the U.S. Dollar.

Seven Big Numbers for 2007
Andrew J. Burkly, CFA, CMT
BBH, January 9, 2007

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. lloyd commented on Jan 10

    Hmm, year 3 of the presidential cycle is the best performer BUT have previous year 3s been faced with the US headed towards a recession?

  2. someguy commented on Jan 10

    “$45 is a critical level for crude oil to defend.”

    When was the last time you even heard someone mention oil, defend and $45 ?

  3. Gary commented on Jan 10

    Just an observation. Jim Rogers mentioned several years ago that at some point you would hear about trouble in China and that would be the next great buying opportunity in commodities. 10+% grow out of China seems to be a given by everybody. Has anyone noticed the FXI lately? -16% move in 5 days. The first leg down in the CRB seems to coincide with the abrubt slowdown in 3rd quarter GDP. This leg seems to be saying we overshot goldilocks and the FXI may be suggesting trouble in China. Can anyone imagine what a 16% decline in the S&P in 5 days would feel like. The current state of the VIX would suggest that no one is prepared for anything negative. Everyones concentrating on Apple’s iphone instead of what’s happening all around them.

  4. marketheretic commented on Jan 10

    big picture “wannabe” market heretic called for $45 oil back in early september.

  5. Eclectic commented on Jan 10

    Herezya number: “46865”

    Graph it!… connect the dots!

    …compliments of Ben Dover.

  6. Eclectic commented on Jan 10

    hint: you can easily graph it on your left hand.

  7. alexd commented on Jan 10

    I have thought about it, you guys are essentially incorrect, you act like a bunch of academics. You take apart reasons why something occour and give it prominence over price action.

    the questin might be : Is this working?”

    I think if anyone of us is going to make a statement on the market they should commit to a time frame they are operating in. Otherwise it is bs. All of us know that a stock can go up or down and someone can play it on the reverse going long when it is going down long term or the reverse.

    Bet you option players play a shorter time frame then you long term investors. I really do not care what time frame you like to play but that we know that bit of info.

    Example I like this over the next week , month or year. And I set my stops at … for the designated time frame.


    Also if I am murky (Murkee Reseach and sons!) call me on it.And if Ican’ take then f me!

    Be well

  8. Gary commented on Jan 10

    I don’t know anyone that has a crystal ball so how can anyone accurately predict a time frame? I know the market is overvalued and extremely overbought. I also know the commercial players in the S&P futures are extremely net short at this time. I know the NYSE summation index & Nasdaq summation index have probably the largest divergence since this bull started in Oct 02. I know this bull is one of the longest bull markets in history even though the S&P and Nasdaq still haven’t hit new highs after 7 years. In real terms the Dow isn’t close to a new high either. I know that commodities have broken badly. I know that some of the European markets and Asian markets are looking shaky. I know the NYSE has been down 7 out of the last 8 days. So do I know when the market will break? Nope. Do I know it will break? Yep. Nothing goes straight up or straight down for that matter. The odds are just in favor of a decline sometime in the not to distant future. Now if the commercials were to cover their shorts and go long I would be much more inclined to be buying.

  9. someguy commented on Jan 11

    You can’t guess time frame on these things because you can never guess the investor psychology that goes on to make it happen.

    What caused the dot com bubble to burst in April 2000 ? Why didn’t it happen that January ? What was it about April ?

    What caused the housing market to dive recently ? Why didn’t it correct earlier or run longer ? You cant say valuations, because they were stupid for a long time.

    What caused oil to sell off in the last week and not natgas ! Now there is a question ! Oil people say weather is causing the latest sell off but then why doesn’t natgas sell off ?

    For the record, I called for $50 oil by Dec.1 I was a couple months premature.

  10. Mike commented on Jan 11

    You forgot the most important number! “42” 🙂

  11. Chad K commented on Jan 11


    Some would say Clinton’s year 3, while excellent in the market was just part of the downturn to come.

    So the question remains, will the next president suffer with a bad economy in his/her first years as Bush II did?

  12. Jason Ruspini commented on Jan 12

    “This leg seems to be saying we overshot goldilocks and the FXI may be suggesting trouble in China.”

    FXI had a 21% decline in May-June ’06 and is up 58% since that low. But we can all see the price action. Name the catalyst for trouble in China, today.

  13. The TradeKing Blog commented on Jan 30

    Seven magnificent numbers for 2007

    Seven magnificent numbers for 2007

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