Today’s quote of the day comes to us via John Hussman:
"If the parents or the children of Wall Street
analysts were to ask for wise investment advice, would the first
thought of these analysts really be to encourage stock purchases at a
multi-year market high, in a long-uncorrected and strenuously
overbought advance, at a multiple of over 18 times earnings on
unusually wide profit margins, with wages and unit labor costs rising
faster than inflation, while interest rates are rising, bullish
sentiment is unusually high, and corporate insiders are selling
heavily? Would the potential for further gains in that environment
exceed next inevitable correction by an amount that would make the net
gains worth the risk? Would they encourage using trend-following
systems in an overbought market, even though a decline to simple moving
averages already implies substantial losses?"
UPDATE Februray 16, 2007 12:36
As per a request made in comments, here is John Hussman’s track record for his Hussman Strategic Growth fund (found via Welling@Weedon)
Not too shabby . . .
It’s All Fun and Games Until Someone Gets Hurt
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
February 5, 2007