Earlier today, Doug Kass was calling today’s opening surge the "Fortress Top" as the hedge fund Fortress (FIG) went public.
I don’t disagree that hedge funds going public are dubious, given their "reliable earnings stream and safety from blow ups".
In a note to subscribers yesterday, I explained why big cap tech was looking so risky, and why Microsoft (MSFT) was potentially ugly. Today, Cantor’s Peter Bookvar noted that Microsoft is now down 7 days in a row and down 9 of 10 trading days on nervousness
that Vista sales are sluggish — but let’s not forget MS Office, or the iPod killer, Zune . . .
On a related note, a hedge fund buddy disagrees with me that sentiment has been leaning bullish, but not excessively so as to be a contra-indicator. SF thinks the general attitude has been frothy
to the point of excess. To wit: earnings shortfall seem to be deemed
company specific while good reports are proof of the economy being
bullet proof. Then there is the analyst communtiy tripping over itself
to call a bottom in SemiConductors; All that’s before we get to the GM upgrades, which are to say somewhat starry eyed as to behemoth’s problems and decreasing market share.
I Am Calling This the Fortess Market Top
Real Money, 2/9/2007 10:28 AM EST
Semis Ready to Roll Again
INVESTORS’ SOAPBOX, J.P. Morgan Securities
Barron’s FEBRUARY 9, 2007