Matt Trivisonno, a software developer in Miami Beach who follows the market, has come up with a neat way to track changes in the Federal Government’s witholding tax receipts.
After being rangebound for the prior 4 years, the year-over-year growth in withholding began rolling over in Q4 of 2007 — a possible date marking the beginning of the current recession:
click thru for larger graph
Source: Matt Trivisonno’s Blog
Note that withholding comes directly from Wages and Income, and would
likely precede major shifts in consumer spending or credit.
In Debt Crisis, Uncle Sam Is Piling It On
WSJ, March 24, 2008; Page C1