The March employment data was much worse than expected: NonFarm Payroll down 80,000, Unemployment Rate 5.1%, all prior revisions worsen than previous releases.
Let me be blunt: There is no way to spin these numbers, though that won’t stop the usual syncophants and junkies from trying. Only the 21% who think the country is on the right track will deny the employment situation is weak, and that the odds now favor that we are in a recession.
This was the third month in a row of declining
NFP, and the worst payroll number since March 2003. On a year-on-year basis, nonfarm payroll employment slipped to +0.4% percent in March, from +0.6% in February. The Unemployment rate worsened to 5.1%, from 4.8%
>
charts courtesy of Barron’s Econoday
>>
~~~
For a laugh, go back and read some of the comments on the prior months NFP posts. Some of the inane cheerleading is priceless.
Do not misunderstand me — I want people to debate, discuss, argue. But that means using facts, being data driven, using links to other resources. We want a robust competition of ideas, not rhetoric; intelligence, not wishful thinking.
If you are merely spouting off some post-fact ideological rant, you are not welcome here. Same too for the ditto-heads repeating what some unaccountable pundit has said. The usual trolls who post garbage under pseudonyms are so
embarrassingly clueless, you can only hope that they went broke before
they reproduced (a Darwinian form of financial accountability).
In the next redesign, fake email addresses will not be allowed to be used for registration purposes. Real names, real people, real discussions — Asshats not welcome.
>
Previously:
Employment
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/employment/index.html
Source:
Employment Situation Summary
BLS, April 4, 2008
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Related:
81% in Poll Say Nation Is Headed on the Wrong Track
DAVID LEONHARDT and MARJORIE CONNELLY
NYT, April 4, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/04/us/04poll.html
Good post and thanks for a bit of historical context. I doubt a lot of folk are going to look at the graph and say: Things are looking up!
Minor nit: 100% – 81% = 19%
My mom just called and told me I am not welcome here? I just lost my Job (a fluke, the economy is doing fine!) and now will have nothing to do if I can’t post here.
Oh well…
Some considerations. Payroll employment is now 0.4% y/y it was 0.9% at the start of the 2001 recession and 1.6% at the start of the 1990 recession.
The Household survey ? Employment is -0.1% y/y
Private employment is now down 4 months in a row and unemployment is up 0.7% from its cycle low, both of these never happen except in recessions.
6 month average of payroll is 2k per month again only happens during recession.
81% of americans think the country is on the wrong track..
Welcome to the 2008 recession, It’s been official for awhile now…
We are in recession although it won’t be called until after the fact. The FED is telling us point blank that growth has stalled and we will see negative GDP the first half, but then they hold out the lollipop of a better second half. Unemplyment has a long way to go even if this were a run of the mill recession which it isn’t. Anyone who wasn’t an adult in the late 70s/early 80s hasn’t seen bad. Fasten your seatbelts.
Speaking of cheerleaders, I’m starting to wonder about the folks at ADP. ( they come out with their own employment report 2 days earlier every month )
I made a chart of the 6 month moving average of private payroll BLS and ADP, they start rapidly moving apart 4 months ago as ADP is essentially flat and BLS nosedives.
ADP is still at 75k (essentially where BLS was in mid 2007) and BLS is at -25,000. Because private jobs have dropped -300,000 in the last 4 months.
I know ADP doesn’t cover finance companies much and larger companies but still…
Looks like government employment growth helped keep decline from being even steeper.
A point that is almost never discussed in popular press/TV is that there is a natural increase every month in the number of working age Americans, often estimated as over 100,000 per month. Any employment increase less than 100,000 and we’re not staying even.
Also discouraged job seekers who quit seeking drop out of “unemployment” statistics, I believe. So unemployment is increased both by new entrants and discouraged dropouts.
This is from the AP – do you ever wonder who “Some” is/are? Are these writers (no name on the piece) just paid shills?
“WASHINGTON – Some analysts expect that today’s unemployment report from the Labor Department will show fewer jobs were lost in March than in February. According to Thomson/IFR, the report should show 15,000 jobs were lost in March, which would be an improvement over the 63,000 job cut a month before.”
My old name was Don but…I’m sorry, I love the new one – Thanks B!
then to consider the impact of truth or reality on financial markets… i have the image of countless quantitative hedge funds with computer generated price chasing strategies representing the base of an inverted pyramid levitating on the apex of a single point. this point is the one person WHO THINKS. could this be BR?
Them strong words, Barry. I’ve been digging through the thickets of economic commentaries lately, and I noticed lots of academics predicting worse conditions. Hence, what the market showed this week completely caught me off guard. Perhaps these employment numbers (and also revisions) will reveal some truth about our economy, not just market forces at work.
Great blog!
U-6 is very likely much closer to the true unemployment rate near 9%
JP I had the same thought but decided to click on the link to make sure. 81% of people think that the country is headed in the right direction, but they also said that 21% think the economy is OK, which is what Barry was referring to.
I’ve been reading other people point out that the birth/death model is still way way off, so the numbers are far worse than this even.
Oh well by the time we get the real numbers no one will care.
Barry,
I own a small business and I recently ran a couple of help wanted ads for marketing and clerical work. Many, many, many applications from former Real Estate industry workers-mostly support staff. In fact, with one ad, I simply could not read all of the e-mails and resumes. I run these ads on Craigslist in Los Angeles and e-mails start coming in about 15 seconds after I place the ads.
Two years ago, much less response and I lost staff to “great jobs” in Real Estate.
Yeah, things are different now down here in the real world.
“There is no way to spin these numbers”
Perish the thought: the print is the print. However if I may be so bold, there is a silver lining, to wit, a strong taming influence on wage inflation.
(Posted using a real e-mail address)
“you can only hope that they went broke before they reproduced (a Darwinian form of financial accountability).”
Like I said b4 – you crack me up.
Have you written a book yet?
If not – I have a suggested title for you:
“”Laughing at wall street””
Anybody got a better title?
Barry, the scary part is the 21% can vote. God help us! It’s interesting that the top 1% also gets about 21% of GDP. This kind of income disparity hasn’t existed since the Great Depression.
You nailed it Barry – you must be making a ton of money for your clients this year.
Goldilocks is dead, long live the Queen.
I’ve said this to my many friends who see the word “unexpected” in these news bits.. Who does NOT expect recession as house prices fall? Seriously, what trade group is paying off these useless tools?
If I recall correctly, Bush claimed to create 5 million jobs…40% real-estate related…so if real estate were just to go to a normal level and stabilize, that is…say…hmmm 2 Million jobs to be lost there alone. Worse when it overshoots.
Mr. Troll of 11:03 —
Name a stock that’s worth buying. Better yet, buy and prove that you bought.
I don’t think you’ve got the grapes.
Barry, my brother spoke to a friend in the trucking/sand industry in FL. He said he used to load about 300 trucks a day of sand and now less than 100… ‘things don’t look good’ he said. (but to that point, we are aware).
Additionally, a second generation farmer/friend of several hundred acres has cut his head of cattle from hundreds to less than 100 because of the cost of hay. . . $145/bale currently. He said, ‘we can’t make any money’.
Makes one wonder how many other farmers are in the same situation and are being forced out. That won’t make the cost of beef go higher will it!? (said while eyes rolling)
Brian Wesbury on CNBS now…spinning…only slightly disappointed with the NFP…recession not guaranteed per him.
No way to spin this?
How is this:
“The NFP numbers are adjusting to seasonal factors, but remain well below the 5.5%”
> However if I may be so bold, there is a
> silver lining, to wit, a strong taming
> influence on wage inflation.
Is it reasonable to think that wage inflation would support house prices? I think so. As a matter of fact, I haven’t heard an argument for how house prices don’t return to historic norms related to wages, which means there’s a whole lot of pain ahead, unless your main concern is being able to afford a house (if you have a job).
Um, clueless I think we are in a secular bear market. Have you ever looked at the past secular bears? They definitely had cyclical bulls that doubled the market, but then the next cyclical bear took out a ton. They took over a decade to finally make a gain.
This is extremely important as the average person is flat out lied to about what returns to expect. If you want to play each cyclical bull/bear then fine, that’s something to argue about but most people I know don’t have any clue and just get killed.
W. I. E. C.
“with all due respect” Who are you trying to kid with that line? You don’t have any respect. Who is “Us”? I agree with Unsympathetic: Get a mitt and get in the game – make a call. I’m calling for Dow 11000 before Dow gets to 14000 again.
Embarrassingly Clueless,
Barry is not your mommy. We have been in a secular bear market with powerful cyclical rallies.
Trade your own damn portfolio, I do.
“Do not delete this post and lets come back to it six months from now and see who was embarrassingly clueless, you or us…”
Hmm…. Don L, Larry K, Joe K, Maria B, and the list goes on. Get real “us”.
I must be old, I don’t understand why anyone would want to hide their identity. If you’re smart don’t you want folks to know it? The new site redesign sounds good to me.
Oh, unless of course you are a shill or a troll…and have nothing to say. I could then see why you’re embarrassed to use your real name.
pmorrisonfl IMO you hit the $10 trillion prize.
The common refrain I’m reading from all corners is to monetize and inflate the debt away because it’s too terrible to think about what will happen if we don’t.
This only “works” (in the very loosest sense of the word) if a) the treasury bond holders don’t revolt and b) there is close to equal wage inflation so people can actually “afford” their debts.
Instead we are seeing cost push inflation, with no pricing power in the labor market because there is no way that we can compete with other countries in that department and (even more importantly and overlooked) way too much of our economy is a service economy. There is no pricing power in service jobs. I’m not sure how economists are so stupid to not notice this. Easy money is just going to lead to increased CPI without increased wages and will therefore make things worse.
Of course Brad De Long responded to Yves Smith’s argument that government bailouts won’t solve pricing problems by saying “I have never been able to make this “overproduction” argument make sense. If the government provides a subsidy–like a mortgage insurance subsidy–then we will indeed have more of whatever the government subsidizes, but there is no reason to think that this is in any way a big problem or an unsustainable situation. It may well be a waste of the government’s money to provide the subsidy: taxpayers might rather endure a housing crash and a depression than be forking out extra taxes to pay mortgage guarantees. That’s an empirical and a cost-benefit issue.”
If this is the general thinking amongst economists it explains a lot.
Does anyone know where to get numbers for military enlistment. I’d be interested to see how a chart of those numbers compares to unemployment over the next few months.
Our next bubble will be a new war.
Welcome to the Job Market 2009:
The Job (should open in new window)
Strasser,
Agree with your comments re cattle business but Florida must get their hay from drought stricken Georgia. Hay in N. Texas is $35 a bail. What is more important is feedlot costs. Prices of soybean meal, corn, molasses etc are killing the margins.
If your friend wants to stay in the protein business without the aggrivation I suggest the ETF COW. It is essentially 1 live cattle and 1 lean hog contract.
Disclosure, I don’t own it….Yet.
From the WH Top Spinner: see no evil, hear no evil, etc.
—
Lazear Says He `Doesn’t Focus Too Much’ on U.S. Jobless Rate
By Betty Liu and Shobhana Chandra
April 4 (Bloomberg) — President George W. Bush’s chief economist said he’s not paying too much attention lately to the U.S. unemployment rate.
“I don’t focus too much on the monthly unemployment rate because it has been a bit volatile,” Edward Lazear, chairman of Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
Lazear’s comments followed a Labor Department report earlier today that showed U.S. employers cut 80,000 jobs in March and unemployment rose to 5.1 percent, from 4.8 percent a month earlier. By historical standards, Lazear said joblessness isn’t that high compared with past recessions.
“Even at 5.1 percent, I would point out that that is still a historically low rate of unemployment, well below the average for the 90s, which was 5.8 percent, so we still have a decent labor market,” he said.
He added, “obviously we don’t like to see negative job growth.”
Lazear, a Stanford University labor market economist, said the Bush administration’s forecast for the economy to accelerate in the second half of the year is on target.
Unsympathetic,
There’s nothing to be long? Nothing….C’mon. Nothing has shown up on your buy list over the past quarter…. no steel (MT/STLD)…no nat gas (UNG)…no oil/oil services (ECA/XTO/HES)…no ag (MOO/DBA)…no metals/mining…no Mexico…no Brazil…no nothing. What are you short …anything? Give us a couple names to track.
Sometimes we take our opinions too seriously and don’t act on opportunities that offer well defined risk/reward. I like BR’s site, but it’s a holier-than-thou crowd that hangs out here…that’s for sure.
Rich Shinnick | Apr 4, 2008 10:50:41 AM – “In fact, with one ad, I simply could not read all of the e-mails and resumes. I run these ads on Craigslist in Los Angeles and e-mails start coming in about 15 seconds after I place the ads.”
Wow. That’s a faster response rate than I see with low priced muscle car ads on craigslist.
> pmorrisonfl IMO you hit the $10 trillion prize.
Thank you sir, may I have another?!~
> The common refrain I’m reading from all
> corners is to monetize and inflate the
> debt away because it’s too terrible to
> think about what will happen if we don’t.
My impression is that the Fed is following this line of thought, as are many others. BB is a better student of the Depression than I, so I don’t have a concrete idea of exectly what would be terrible. I’d like to understand that more. Any tips on where to look?
> This only “works” (in the very loosest
> sense of the word) if a) the treasury
> bond holders don’t revolt and b) there is
> close to equal wage inflation so people
> can actually “afford” their debts.
I find it hard to believe that our trading partners will accept sufficient dilution of the dollar and the treasuries without complaint or action. And there doesn’t seem to be much sentiment on wage inflation’s behalf.
Interesting times.
As mentioned, a 5.1% rate is still relatively low (assuming the data is trustworthy, which it may not be). Weren’t people saying that anything under 5% was inflationary anyway? So this should make the inflation hawks happy, nonetheless.
Historically speaking, subsequent to higher unemployment (>=5%) rates, it has been a good time to accumulate stock for the longer term. Of course this time it could be different right?
I saw a ticker on CNBC
Jobs -80K
and thats the story MSM is pumping
but I also saw +91K in government and something like +31K in service sector
then the story should be -202K in high end pyramid base jobs
Ross,
Our friend – second generation farmer – is ‘getting too old for this stuff’… his words. LOL. . . But I’ll pass along the tip for him to ‘look at’.
Who Is Embarrassingly Clueless,
Barry is a typical democrat — distorting and twisting the data to support his deviated from the reality democratic point of view. If someone disagrees with him, he attacks and calls names (typical for democrats).
It is funny that the guy has been making consistently wrong pessimistic calls about the market. I think he should be working for the government organization that monitors our capital markets. He would be a good Wall Street regulator/auditor because he is constantly miserable, paranoid, and looking for something wrong.
A distinct and clear hoorah could be heard on the trading floor, we’re in a recession!
Dow 12,645.08 +19.05
Nasdaq 2,377.65 +14.35
S&P 500 1,375.30 +5.99
Is this a bottom, is it solid?
“Asshat” ?
We will post under the same pseudonyms from now on; everyone will be “Who Is Embarrassingly Clueless?”
from swimming freestyle:
“Two disappointing and, undoubtedly, related statistics. And stinging indictments of a Bush Administration that is so ideologically bent on deregulation, they’ve given up any stewardship of the American economy. As a consequence, we continue to drift towards an economic downturn European analysts refer to as depression-like while Mr. Bernanke dances nervously in Congressional hearings afraid to say the “R” word and President Bush goes AWOL to a NATO conference. It will require some real Houdini like moves on the part of the Administration and their minions to squirm out of accountability for this gigantic mess.
Democrats need to loudly remind voters the consequences of leaders allowing outdated and disproven ideological considerations to interfere with the business of managing the government and the, now obvious, implications for the American people.
Loudly. Very loudly.”
http://swimmingfreestyle.typepad.com
Who Is Embarrassingly Clueless?
Re-read your post and tell me (from your own definition) are you a Democrat?
You Sir (or Madam?) are name calling.
I guess we have the answer to your question.
calling for Dow 6800 in 2006
who’d thunk we would still be grabbing for barrels with 1 more bullet all this time
these are amazing days
Kings rule
Who Is Embarrassingly Clueless, you are a freaking riot of a parody of a Republican and, specifically, GW Bush, when you write: distorting and twisting the data to support his deviated from the reality.
Bush is Mr. “Mission Accomplished” after all. And anyway haven’t you already heard from Colbert? Reality has a well known liberal bias.
saw +91K in government jobs …… high end pyramid base jobs
just heard a local radio report on road construction projects
I wonder how much you should discount a construction job from a government contract?
Get over it!! Accept the fact that CNBC is nothing more than a conduit and spinmeister for the political right. Only then will your investing life get better.
I wish Bloomberg were more widely availabe. They are considered premium content by my cable company.
You see. Even my Cable Company knows the difference in financially-balanced reporting and financial entertainment. Financial entertainment is free. Objective advice and reporting….you have to pay extra for that. You know, I’m going to look into that this weekend.
Clueless,
I’m a registered Republican? Bush has nobody to blame but himself? His appointees are time after time dropping the ball. First, Rumsfield, Then that idiot Smith, Now Paulson.
He will be known for single handedly bringing this country to it’s knees.
If you don’t know the shit’s going to hit the fan, that’s your problem. You want to go long on some company, good luck, “clue” us in on your research?
Barry put’s his name and rep out there everday my friend which I appreciate. Whether I agree or disagree. That’s more than I can say for you.
From now on I will think of you as “No Balls”.
Unlike Barry you can’t even stand behind your own opinions, right or wrong.
C’mon everybody, Give No Balls the Troll a big Howdy!
Nothing positive in the report! Barry, how could you miss the 0.1% increase in the average hourly work week?
I have to agree with earlier posts regarding secular bears. It is not uncommon to see quite substantial rallies within secular bears. The secular bear that ran from the mid-60’s to the early 80’s contained six bull markets. In fact the five-year cyclical bull from 02-07 had a gain per annum of only 14.2%. That ranks 2nd to last amongst the 34 bull markets seen since 1900. The only cyclical bull to produce a lower GPA was the 1966-1968 bull market, which also occurred in the early stages of a secular bear.
For a good perspective on where we currently stand I highly recommend reading the below essay by Patrick Wolff at Clarium Capital.
http://howardlindzon.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/clarium-the-long-goodbye.pdf
http://bp2.blogger.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/R_ZDR0CrunI/AAAAAAAACaE/hGdFH0f-XK0/s1600-h/a-12-2008-03.png
unemployment statistics table.. Interesting.
As a business owner, recession or no recession people comng to my office are on the brink. What I mena by that is they are going along with the higher prices for now the best they can but are near the point of breaking down. There is some expectation this is just for the short term. I think once they find this is going to be longer term you are going to see a major contraction and change in habits.
I just don’t see commodoties letting up with a weak dollar and BB keeping the spigot wide open? A nasty combination
Nothing positive ….. the 0.1% increase in the average hourly work week
thats positive? the working – work harder
WillG must be a manager
Just confirming the recession. As you know unemployment is a seriously lagging indicator, I think the laggiest of them all (except for maybe the “official” designation after 2 Q’s of GDP contraction).
I personally think that this recession will last a bit longer, as R.E. has a longer trough cycle than other industries, but to base trading decisions on such an lagging indicator is like trying to trade on 6 month-old data. Kind of useless.
Imagine someone from BLS, a FRB, treasury, maybe even a JPM employee with something pertinent to say who was not allowed to do so because it would be career suicide using his real name on their posts. There are many valid reasons not to use real names, since I, King Dick, would crush them like a bug. Just joking, and my name is not Dick, my initials are pft, I mispelled his last name because he might get mad at me. So just because a real name looks like a real name, how do you verify that anyways.
Back to the jobs numbers. Given the numbers were already massaged, you have to imagine our reality is much worse than the numbers reported.
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/291
John Williams, a real name, says we probably lost 124,000 jobs. He may not always be right, but his reality seems closer to the truth than the reality Big Brother spins for us.
“Bias Adjustment. One element boosting the numbers was the monthly bias factor (birth-death model), which was a net addition of 142,000 jobs in March, following a net addition of 135,000 jobs in February. The March add-factor mindlessly spiked construction jobs by 28,000 and financial activities jobs by 6,000, irrespective of anecdotal evidence of serious trouble in those areas
Seasonal-Factor Gimmicks. Year-to-year growth should be virtually identical in both the seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted series, and applying the unadjusted annual change to the seasonally-adjusted year-ago numbers for February and March suggests that the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change should have been a contraction of 124,000. This reporting gimmick is made possible by the “recalculation” each month of the monthly seasonal factors. If the process were honest, the suggested differences would go in both directions. Instead, the differences almost always suggest that the seasonal factors are being used to overstate the current month’s relative payroll level, as seen last month and the month before.”
>> Barry is a typical democrat — distorting and twisting the data to support his deviated from the reality democratic point of view.
Colbert, is that you?
Hail to the Borrower-in-Chief and rubber-stamp GOP Congress!
>> Do not delete this post and lets come back to it six months from now and see who was embarrassingly clueless, you or us…
>> Posted by: Who Is Embarrassingly Clueless?
Why assume many of the current bears here weren’t bullish back in 2003. Or assume they’re not flipping positions daily, weekly, and monthly in present conditions?
>> Imagine someone from BLS, a FRB, treasury, maybe even a JPM employee with something pertinent to say who was not allowed to do so because it would be career suicide using his real name on their posts.
Completely.
Quick! Deport 80,000 illegals!
TODAY’S HEADLINE: PAYROLLS -80K & STOCKS HIGHER
Then when “up-tick rule” controversey fades, bears will re-emerge (hungry!)…
NEXT: PAYROLLS -115K & STOCKS DOWN ~300?
We Americans have to realize a dreadful fact. Most of us have no actual skills or desire to reinvent ourselves to be useful for all the technical, engineering, energy and scientific jobs available right now.
Having just completed my transition out of the submarine force I have had time to realize that I am well positioned in training, education, and experience. All these other americans that are being bounced out of real estate, mortgage brokering and finanace have no desire to create a new destiny. The old, easy bubble economy money they made for years is not coming back.
In the last two months I attended three job conferences in San Diego. At every conference I had at least eight interviews. At least two job offers resulted from each conference. Each conference ranged from 50 to 65 employment candidates with more jobs available than talent present to interview.
Supply and demand employment imbalances are lining my pockets. Business is getting better and better in energy, specifically alternative energy. Job security is strong. Unlike the fast money people who came to quick money overnight, I spent eight years undewater preparing for my area of expertise. The tortoise is crushing the hare. Good for me, tough break to the crybabies.
Any quantitative discussion on time series needs illustrations. There is no such option in this blog. How would you expect somebody to present own view?
On the other hand, this increase in UE rate was foreseen 2 years ago. This increase will extend in 2009 with peak UE of 6% in the middle of 2009.
I have to use my own blog as a source of illustrations.
http://inflationusa.blogspot.com/2008/03/unemployment-inflation-labor-force.html
http://inflationusa.blogspot.com/2008/03/phillips-curve-revisited.html
Barry, why not take a historical prospective here? -80 is a bad number, no quesion. But the population of US increased buy 50% from 7o-ies. So, by historical standarts unemployment is still below average, which is around 6%.
But the true unemployment is pehraps understated.
John Wellman I’m on your educated side.
but log this:
I’m on board for energy and pollution innovations from the engineering front.
But categories of military; space; evolution; religion; I am long longer interested in pumping my energy their way.
I am interested in peaceful co-habitation of the races, religions and all the other entities.
Be aware the underclass may be reaching a point that serving the upperclass isn’t rewarding enough. Humans have an instinct to self survival – and this is the tricky part here in time.
Best wishes in making all our lives meaningful and enjoyable.
Question from an economic simpleton: why is agricultural employment singled out for statistical analysis?
Question from an economic simpleton: why is agricultural employment singled out for statistical analysis?
BG,
Bloomberg streams TV and radio; see their web site.
Phil – I heard that the Federal Reserve has a seperate category. Why that one?
But I’ll take on Agriculture (from my simpleton perspective).
I consider Ag a pyramid base job. It takes an item (seed, piglet) add time, effort and equipment, the item transforms into an item with expanded wealth. Beyond that it is an item you can not live without. Unlike an iPod.
fyi – I see the financial world as a pair of pyramids, base to base <|>. Trickle down to old money, stack up to new money. Microsoft & Apple top side ~ banks & gold bottom side.
Greg – thanks for that.
I’d just been reading JK Galbraith and was struck by the way he described the differences between agriculture and other industries at the time of the Depression (in terms of market structure and govt subsidy) and wondered if it was an artefact of that period.
In the mid-1980s, Reagan shifted members of the military into the employment statistics as employed people; any long-term comparison of unemployment rates has to take that change into account.