Just cracked under Dow 11,000 — more later . . .
Dow 10,980.37 !
July 11, 2008 11:32am by Barry Ritholtz
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Soft Furry Landing
mama
And oil reaches an all-time high.
October 9, 2007 Dow Jones 30 close: 14164.53
Current intraday value at 11:42am for Dow Jones 30 on July 11, 2008: 11034.27
Down 22.1% from the bull market high.
So how much fluff is left? It seems there’s a good bit left in financials, but we’ve wiped out a ton already.
BR’s next blog: “11,000 we hardly knew ya”
we’re going down another 33% on the SPY, probly by fall of next year
More later?? I agree…Dow will be down much more later today. The smug faces at CNBC will be gone. Caramer will be told to be calm and perhaps Burnett will cry.
Glad I cashed out a while ago.
Barry, we are saved. This should answer the need for fuel and save the planet at the same time. However, We will need global warming when winter arrives, and everyone has to fill their tanks with heating oil but don’t have no money to do so. To fart or not to fart, that is the question!
Cow farts collected in plastic tank for global warming study
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/2274995/Cow-farts-collected-in-plastic-tank-for-global-warming-study.html
Bush the idiot is on TV right now–explaining oil supply and demand—Lord save us!!!!!!!
W on now. Big problem is not all the dishonest moneymen who’ve tanked the economy. No, it’s high gas prices. And we all know the solution to that. Drill in Alaska and off the coast of FL and CA.
Makes me feel better already knowing he’s in charge. Maybe it’s because my group of short ETF’s went up .3% in the five minutes after he spoke.
Have an idea for a new blog – http://www.ihatedenniskneale.com. Think the time is ripe for it AND the URL is free for the taking. Any takers?
Ex SEC Levitt just said that the FOMC helped create the mess we are in. I thought I’d never hear someone finally say it on tv.
I know all of this is not entirely the fault of the Party currently in power; but, alot of it is and it just puts an exclamation point on all of the sins of the past 8 years.
It makes me think of that piece of scripture in the Bible something to the effect of “You know not what day or time; but He comes as a thief in the night…”. Well, it’s too late for the GOP to make amends; we now have to move on and try to save the Country.
We are now going thru the cleansing phase and probably a significant inflection point as well.
Ok, when are they going to fire kudlow and Dennis Kneale??? (they both look like the creepy guys that hang out in the back of the strip club)
the value guys are out in force today!!!!
Stocks are cheap!!!!
Buy,buy,buy
Bye,bye….
Ciao
MS
Oh yeah….the good ole SEC! What rock did you find them under?
Since no one did anything wrong (unlawful) leading up to this mess, they should just shut down the SEC also; since they have proven to be totally useless.
Actually, CNBC probably thinks the loathing of Kneale and Kudlow improve ratings (the talk radio strategy), but I actually stopped watching Larry’s show months ago (sorry BR) and try to turn down the volume when Kneale talks (and never watch him, he does NOT have a face for TV, a woman that ugly would never make it on TV today, hence the double standard, but I digress). I find myself yelling at the TV every time his voice makes it through my manual volume-decrease filter. His voice is like nails on a chalkboard.
So, who, Hank or Ben, or maybe even W, is working the phone lines to lure private sector assistance for Fannie & Freddie? I think they’re dialing 1-800-GO-SAUDI.
QQQQ down 2.4%…halfway to my prediction before the bell that it would drop 5% in a few days.
Posted by: SPECTRE of Deflation | Jul 11, 2008 11:57:44 AM
____
This is especially good for those who love the smell of dairy air.
Or is that derriere?
Posted by: SPECTRE of Deflation | Jul 11, 2008 11:57:44 AM
____
This is especially good for those who love the smell of dairy air.
Or is that derriere?
Posted by: SPECTRE of Deflation | Jul 11, 2008 11:57:44 AM
____
This is especially good for those who love the smell of dairy air.
Or is that derriere?
Posted by: SPECTRE of Deflation | Jul 11, 2008 11:57:44 AM
____
This is especially good for those who love the smell of dairy air.
Or is that derriere?
We have Freefall.
Did everyone just see that we are really in a CUB market as opposed to a BEAR market and that the market will turn up in 20 days?
Unfortunately, for the suckers, this will likely coincide with the expected bounce and suck them back in so they can lose more on the way down.
During trying times such as this I just repeat my mantra – words which were actually uttered by Dennis Kneale on the air a couple weeks ago:
“If you haven’t sold you haven’t lost money”
“If you haven’t sold you haven’t lost money”
“If you haven’t sold you haven’t lost money”
Amazing – I feel better already!
Dennis Kneale is far less annoying than Don Luskin. The worse the market gets the more shrill his message becomes. I love watching the year-old Youtube clips of him telling Peter Schiff he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. He still won’t acknowledge he was wrong. Typical know it all. When he turns bearish, I start buying.
Those waterfall charts of FNM, FRE, LEH, WB, DSL, WM, FED, ….
This is what happens when easy money and bailout nation becomes the governing philosophy of crony capitalism. Billion dollar bonuses for Wall Street elites, millions of dollars of contributions to politicians of both parties and of course the revolving door between regulators, policy makers and Wall Street. Rubin, Paulson, Easy Al.
Now the biggest cheerleaders for “free market capitalism” and the repeal of Glass-Steagall and “risk adjusted capital” make even the marxist lenninist communists blush as they scream for nationalization, backstops and bailouts of their losing positions. But those billions in bonuses based on fraudulent financial performance – that’s in the Cayman!
Yes, the shoe is on the other foot!
All the bulls said that Bear Sterns was the 7th inning… I’m pretty sure that that is not the case.
Perhaps we’re in the 3rd inning of a game where both starters have been knocked out already, there will be 5, hour long rain delays, and oh yeah, Ronan Tyan is going to sing a 150 minute version of ‘God Bless America’ to ice the set-up guy for the bottom of the 8th.
Extra innings anyone?
HCF
I agree, but I don’t even watch Luskin anymore. Too much of a pompous ass. Problem is, perma-bulls like Luskin NEVER turn bearish. They just wait for the market to finally turn up 3 years (and a lot of wealth destruction) later and then they say “I told you we were oversold”.
“If you haven’t sold you haven’t lost money”
“If you haven’t sold you haven’t lost money”
“If you haven’t sold you haven’t lost money”
—
Does that chant also work for SoCal real estate values ?
I have to confess…After keep on saying IXIC^1881 for ages and all, I cashed out qids before independence day, and today and still to my disbelief I took a 100% plunge on tkc adr. I still believe in IXIC1881, but i simply couldn’t help myself, first bought some then some more then some more, before I knew i was up to my neck again like i was up to my neck in qids before.
Let the record show, I still believe in ixic 1881 but decided i should give a shot at catching a falling knife.
I think it’s high time that CNBC replaces Goldilocks Kudlow with Barry? Barry – you game?
Dennis Kneale is indeed annoying, but at least his only ‘qualification’ is being a talking head. My question is, WHO THE HELL GIVES DON LUSKIN MONEY TO MANAGE?
I’d rather have this guy manage my portfolio:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEZe0Inny4k
Much more qualified!
HCF
An interview on Bloomberg right now… In short the senior guy said: you should easy on the bad news and everybody should take a deep breath and enjoy the weekend. That was quite a red flag.
“Cow farts collected in plastic tank for global warming study”.
“The United Nations Food & Agricultural Association claims that the world’s 1.5 billion cows are worse then all the cars, planes, and all other forms of transportation PUT TOGETHER. Apparently, cows are so dangerous because their “emissions” contain methane gas—a substance thought to heat the atmosphere twenty times more than carbon dioxide.”
Greenpeace is fixin’ to be in a quandary – kill the cows or kill the environment…
Every nation has the government it deserves! May be and I say MAY be after the fried chicken pecked us in the butt, we will wake up from chowing cheap Chinese shit and even cheaper crap our politicians feed us and stop sending 700bil a year to islamofascists. And you know what? Forget it I don’t think so, just turned the puke box on and guess what CNBC goes: buy, cheap, recovery, second half…
Long on GLD since 05 and long on QID, SDS, FXE since last fall. Good luck people we will need it with Husein heading to the office.
The CNBC phrase that gets my blood boiling…and we hear it all the time…”market is off its lows of the day”. That must be brainwashed into everyone of those idiots.
490 million shares traded so far in Fannie and Freddie today.
MS, re your tongue-in-cheek “Stocks are cheap!!!!
Looks like as of June 30,12-month S&P earnings fell to $55.42, a decline of nearly 35% yoy; p/e at 23.1, highest in 5 years… while forecasts are placing future earnings to “increase” to $72 for 2008, but lower for 2009.
Must mean the “smart money” is still buying. Dumb money that I are, all cash.
CNBC: it’s all the short sellers and plaintiff lawyers driving down Lehman.
I suppose the plaintiff lawyers are in there because they may be more hated than short sellers. We all know they caused the mortgage crisis and forced Fuld to overleverage Lehman.
my vote is for drawandquarterdenniskneale.com
>> Every nation has the government it deserves!
I sometimes say that, too. But…
On the one hand, I’m afraid I have to quote something less-than-compassionate from Unforgiven’s William Munny character: “‘deserve’ has nothing to do with it”.
On the other hand, more compassionately, really, does anyone “deserve” this crap? I say “no”.
Legal short sellers cannot bring down a strong company…opportunists would squeeze them.
Although all thoughts seem to be on equities, i think the real damage is going to be in the bond market, whereby the assumption of fannie and freddie debt by the government will double the national debt. Treasuries are already being hit as the market starts to rerate the US. Anybody running bond hedges versus long equities portfolios (as most institutionals do) have not enjoyed today.
Barry,
Dennis Keanle is reading your blog and stealing your ideas. I heard him ask a guest an hour ago “so do you think all these short seller’s rumors would have the same effect on Goldman they have on Lehman” His comments sounded like he was reading from your “About Those Companies Brought Down by Rumors” post this morning.
Just another reason to start the http://www.ihatedenniskneale.com. blog suggested by a previous poster.
Come on, guys. Everyone thinks it will keep going down, thus the market will go ….
Anyone who watches the market every day knows it has been building a base the last couple of days. Huge intraday volatility, but no real movement except today with the fannie & freddie collapse. As of 20:00 CET (2:00 NY time) it recaptured the value range of the previous day, it will go up. The real damage will be in the autumn/winter when the first unemployment reports are > -100.000. Then everybody’s eyes will open.
And CNBC website has a volatility spike related link, but VIX is still below 30.
Anyone hearing they could change the uptick rule again over the weekend???—could be an interesting Monday!!!
Changing the uptick rule is one thing,
margin call is another….
Hopefully Obama will be elected soon so the media begins to report favorable news again. ‘There isn’t any’ you say, they will find it – or make it up if they must. God save us if Mac is elected, the media will continue pessimism for the next 4 years. They haven’t only concerned consumers but business owners/decision makers too.
Sweeny, go to the link and see what the cow’s wearing. LOL! All we need to harness this power is have all the cows wear it and, it equals big money in the Carbon Market and makes us rich.
MA, Touche’! LOL!
Sweeny, we also win the Nobel Prize for saving the Earth. LOL!
Does anyone really want to own anything over this weekend? I’m thinking of picking up some UYG on the theory that there’ll be some kind of Fed action, but who knows. It’s a pure gamble at this point.
That’s too funny, SPECTRE!
The poor cow appears to be feeling a bit humiliated – he’s lookin’ for some love from somebody. “Is this what life has come to? Go ahead and load the gun…”
Prozac Jim Cramer is on and trying to pump the market back…then fed says F&F can hit discount window…presto…dumb rally underway. It will fail miserably.
“It’s a pure gamble at this point”
Yeah maybe,
but, what if we end green today!!!!!
Do you catch CNBC in your bunker Steve Berry,
or is it patched through your wi-fi????
Steve Berry should read Steve Barry.
This is the canary in the coal mine:
Goldman Down 6% on HIGH VOLUME
Let me get this straight…any insolvent company that can access more capital is saved? Hmmm…no wonder we are in a death spiral.
The bunker has cable.
FNM and FRE to Bernanke:
Spare a trillion brother?
Dodd: This is no time for panic.
Like he would ever say “PANIC!!!!!!!!”
THEY DO EXIST!!! The “Plunge Protection Team” that is. It’s gonna be a long weekend.
Classic luskin crap
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Guwd5J4Buig&feature=related
I hate these rumor mongerers making the market go UP. Note VIX dropped 10% off this stupidity rally. The dopes with hopes are back.
Sens Levin and Feinstein introduce bill to curb commodity speculation! Hmm
I suggest that Congress should euthanize Freddie and Fannie to curb HOUSING speculation.
Hmmm, I wonder why no senator has suggested that!
NEW YORK, Jul 11, 2008 (PrimeNewswire via COMTEX) — The Securities Law Firm of Klayman & Toskes, P.A. ( http://www.nasd-law.com ) announced today that it is continuing to process claims against several full-service brokerage firms, including UBS (UBS, Trade ), SunTrust (STI, Trade ), Wachovia (WB, Trade ) and Banc of America Investment Services (BAC, Trade ) on behalf of investors whose money has become frozen in Auction Rate Securities. Since Klayman & Toskes announced its investigation of Auction Rate Securities in February 2008, the Law Firm has received numerous inquires from purchasers of Auction Rate Securities and have filed several arbitration claims with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority’s (“FINRA”) Office of Dispute Resolution.
…surely people not being able to access their money… can’t be a problem for these banks can it?
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet might be able to rescue another investment bank or three, but I don’t think it can rescue two GSE’s.
Maybe it is just me, but Dennis Kneale looks like a black rapper from years ago who I think went by the name “Humpty Hump”…does anyone else notice this resemblance?
Bruce in Tennessee
Barry, explain purchase accounting, Fair market value accounting and Net present value accounting. Why are smart people allow our financial system to collapse when time and a little perspective would ease the ability of markets to understand valuations? It seems NPV models would better value a protfolio of ill-liquid securites while still offer transparancy, since they derive their discount rates from the Treasury market, which one assumes has a great deal of market intelligence within the rates being set.
One other thought before the weekend…lots of loose talk about giving the Fed more power…I know we all read the same things…but I think the Fed has too much power already, and that if Greenspan hadn’t been able to lower rates to 1% and keep them there, that the problems we have today would in large part have been unable to materialize…and I think Bernanke is still considering lowering from 2%, no matter what the spin that has been given out lately, and I doubt this is the answer…
If the Fed has this much power, we need a Volker, not these other two wet noodles..
Bruce in Tennessee
Things ain’t looking good. Today, equities, treasuries and the dollar are all down simultaneously, a few more sessions like this and it’s a whole new ball game. If this pattern holds, you’re going to be waking up in Zimbabwe by this time nest week. This doesn’t look good from any angle.
It looks like the rush to the doors is beginning to heat up.
Look out below…!
I can’t think of any reason why any of the readers of this blog site shouldn’t have a great weekend… for the others, what a shame….
Best regards,
Econolicious
Has anyone heard this rumor? I heard it from a source in government.
WHITE HOUSE SHORT SELLS FAN/FRED
In an incredibly reckless gambit to force Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to shrink their balance sheets, several administration officials fabricated stories of planning meetings to take over Fannie and Freddie and then peddled the story line to NYT and WSJ reporters, according to sources. The stories spun out of control beyond what the officials anticipated, creating a political nightmare for the administration and forcing Treasury Secretary Paulson to clean up the
mess.
Word is this story is racing around DC like wildfire…
This just in. The Fed announced that they did not talk to FNM or FRE about having access to the discount window. The story reported by Reuters is FALSE.
This is similar to the story about PIMCO and SAC in regards to Lehman.
Who is getting away with these rumors?
Bloomberg.com is flat on its butt. Their Servers are totally overwhelmed.
Dougie Kass is a putz!
Oh, I missed this gem:
>> Good luck people we will need it with Husein heading to the office.
Yup. I think I understand this one. But, let me make sure I have it straight:
(a) Clinton’s fault <-- 2000-2006 (b) 2008 --> Obama’s fault
(c) We can only attribute 2007 to the Party of Self Responsibility.
Is that right?
Bwahahahaha!
Can someone tell me when Don Luskin recommended investors avoid financials?
“Is that right?”
Jerry Bower, economist (CNBC, Kudlow & Co, 9Jul08): “Stocks are forward looking; when they drop now, it means investors are worried about things that are coming later – 6 to 9 months later. In other words, they’re worried about Obama.”
Yes, it’s Obama’s fault. These guys tickle my funny bone.
So when is S&P going to downgrade U.S. treasuries?
Damn near getting time to buy
Cnbc has really lost its credibility as Kudlow and Kneale keep saying now is a buying opportunity. They said that at Dow 14000. They say it everyday! Sharon Efferson gets an orgasm ever time oil prices go up. Its as if she’s rooting for it to do so. I think anyone who buys oil to speculate on the up side and roots for it to go to 200 a barrel is immoral. Nothing good will come from oil going higher and profiting from it is nothing more than blood money!
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