Barron’s columnists Michael Kahn and Randall Forsyth discuss technical analysis:
Bear Market Clues
August 1, 2008 3:30am by Barry Ritholtz
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Employment? Its Typical for a Recession…
7th inning stretch…hmmm really?
And Harry Cary is singing, “take me out to the ball-park! lol
I always think I am a dope when it comes to TA and then I listen to an interview with a “PRO” and I understand why so many scoff at the art. What a DUH! interview. Wow! My birdbath is deeper…
I thought you were “outta here”, BR. I know blogs are addictive, but you need complete R&R. You are one of the few competent dissenting voices against the Laffers and Luskins of the world, plus that Ewok fellow. We need you. Anyway, thanks for all you do. I won’t be around much now so good luck to all your peeps in making the right decision in November (Obama).
Two interesting gleanings. Given that TA is a useful tool all the discussion about “the average length” or the 20% rule, etc. isn’t as important as letting the data and trends tell you what’s going…”just the facts” mamm. Which given the links between economy, profits and markets and the common mis-understandings really says “it’s the economy stupid”. We may be in the 7th inning as the Techies see it but they aren’t looking at our crossing the tipping point on the real business cycle. I’d say more like the 3rd inning or 4th at best.
His column in Barron’s is worth reading.
But the “7th inning” is a little optimistic. In terms of price, there is a POSSIBILITY that SPX 1200 represents the 7th inning. But in terms of time, I think we’re closer to the 5th inning.