In light of today’s data, this was sadly amusing:
How Are Your Employees Weathering the Economy?
August 1, 2008 3:30pm by Barry Ritholtz
This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. The Compound Media, Inc., an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers Please see disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/blog-disclosures/
What's been said:
Discussions found on the web:Posted Under
Previous Post
Why Does Gas Cost $4 or More a Gallon?Next Post
Roubini: $2 Trillion in Debt Losses
Wish I’d thought of that…
The Company with a little help from its freinds will plan but all will not weather the economy because its employees are 70% of GDP.
I’ve noticed folks are buying less coffee from the coffee retailers.
Not to worry. Soon the “FED” will own everything and big daddy will take of all us chil’ens.
The BLS reported that the Employer Cost Index—a comprehensive measure of average wages and benefits—fell 1.8% in real terms in June 2008 compared to June 2007.
New corporate profit center: cutting wages and benefits.
Whee!
Gotta love this thug economy. Vote for McCain!
According to the Wall Street Journal online, as of today, the S&P earnings are down 22%.
Earnings, ex-financials — plus 5%
Earnings, ex-energy — down 28%
Banks and investment banks (no surprise of course) went from making $40B to losing $10B. They’re obviously not going to return anywhere close to their previous levels of profitability. The question is where they will end up.
Further, despite the pumping, the rest of the industries aren’t fine. Consumer goods and consumer services are the other two big losers, off 30% and 39% respectively. So it’s hard to figure how the pundits can we, a consumer-driven economy, is actually okay despite the fact that financials and consumer-related industries are sucking wind big time. That said, there are numerous industries that are doing well on their own. The question again is whether they will continue doing well with the banking industry being absolutely in the toilet, likely for years to come. Let’s just say I have my doubts.
Here is a small business owner’s take on the times:
1. A couple major customers falling behind with me, nothing to do with business so much as bad real estate investments on their parts and their inability to finance their personal lifestyles with credit-so they just stop paying business vendors (aka “me”) in some cases.
2. The one Chinese company we import product from raised prices 10% in one fell swoop, which is the first increase in 3 years.
3. Other vendors are sending mid-year price increases, in a business where traditionally that is done at the end of the year.
4. Our average sale is down significantly from last year-retail discretionary.
5. One vendor lowered prices, they finally gave in and outsourced plastic molding to China. 200 jobs gone, but we got a price reduction from them to match competition.
I will actually probably hire more people in sales to try to keep the business steady on volume as the average sale is down.
I think for small businesses, letting employees go it sticky, it takes time to find and train good people and when we lay them off it means we (the owners) have to replace them later, so we cut hours first and people in a slowing job market will take that.
They would rather work 30 hours per week than not at all, and that is why job cuts in the small business side are slow to come.
401k’s taking a hit, both from withdrawl’s as well as people deciding to opt out completely. More alarming is the garnishment activity picking up. I suspect this is the unintended consequence of the 05 bk bill. Putting credit card debt ahead of mortgages mean continued trouble for housing as more and more simply walk away.
My employees are lucky. They are all young and have essentially no debts. They will inherit the earth, while I end up bailing out the debtors via my taxes.
I recently packaged my entire group and myself and transferred our expertise to another institution. Good timing as it turned out, I was able to write in a 10-20% raise for everyone, just ahead of a salary freeze to be announced on Monday…
Inflation?? – don’t make me laugh. Where is the wage-price spiral going to come from? The deflation T-Rex is going to eat the inflation crocodile alive and BB will get to see whether he is really smarter than the governors of the BOJ.
Turning Japanese, Barry? I really think so. Pass the sake and make sure the nori is crisp on those maki.
«The BLS reported that the Employer Cost Index—a comprehensive measure of average wages and benefits—fell 1.8% in real terms in June 2008 compared to June 2007.
New corporate profit center: cutting wages and benefits.»
The other point of view from the owners or managers of businesses is that when a USA engineer costs $100k/y and a chinese or indian one $10k/y then the USA engineer is stealing $90k/y, and that they are sick of being the victims of exploitative, overpaid, underworked parasites in the USA screwing them out of a large chunk of their profits or bonuses.
«Inflation?? – don’t make me laugh. Where is the wage-price spiral going to come from?»
China and India, who have been on a colossal inflationary boom in salaries and jobs as USa corporations have disinvested heavily from the USA and poured FDI into other countries whose employees are less parasitical and exploitative than those in the USA.
Blissex writes – “are less parasitical and exploitative”
I thought America had a decent wage structure in place until about Y2K? … then things went bonkers
office paper pushing types deserve more than the miners? screw inserters? the garbage haulers?
classic – the brain instructs the muscle
classic – the muscle feeds the brain
Fact is the American Dream For All requires a balance … and global labor wants the american dream too … and they messed with the balance
@leftback
I can do in 3 days what takes off-shored labor with two guys a month to do. When you really add it up, employers are getting bamboozled.
It’s not like other professions. A highly talented programmer is 10 to 20 times more effective and efficient than the average programmer. This is the most misunderstood profession. Throwing bodies at the problem depending on the size of the project will actually ensure the project will fail.
Take a look at google and look at how much revenue they generate per employee. See how talent and good pay translates to the bottom line. Especially for software developers. Google could not be implemented with average programmers.
Also my company was paying 36 dollars an hour for off-shored programmer resources. Obviously not all of that goes into the hands of developers. This is the biggest rip off I know – all in an effort to average down the cost of management with head count.
Nine pregnant women cannot make a baby in a month. The fallacy of man/months in cost and scheduling estimates.
Most DP management, unless they were promoted through the ranks, haven’t a clue to accurate project cost and scheduling.