James Hamilton has been relying upon Unemployment data to model whether or not we are in a recession.
Friday’s release pretty much sent his model over the edge:
"Sure looks like a recession when you inspect a graph the unemployment rate,
doesn’t it? And it also looks like a recession from the perspective of a model
of unemployment dynamics that I published
in 2005. If you use that model to analyze the latest unemployment numbers,
you’d calculate the current probability of being in a recession at 95%.