Its going to be ugly, but that’s no surprise. The only suspense is whether its going to be mediocre (i.e., 150k lost jobs), bad (250), awful (350) or horrific (500+).
Bloomberg survey consensus was for 333k.
We lost 240,000 jobs in October. I was going to choose 275k as a middle of the road number, but that’s probably too optimistic.
We could easily see a 400k or worse.
Given all of the layoffs and utter lack of hiring going on, I am going to throw out 365k as my guess — 1000 job losses per day for a year — in one month.
As always, remember that the trend is what matters — not any single monthly number. And for the past 24 months, the trend has been negative.