Congratulations! Only 7 years late:
Biderman takes Issue with U.S. Government Savings Data; U.S. Savings Rate is Negative and Falling– only he is wrong, savings rates were negative, and now they have been going up the past few months, hence the weak retail data.
Note that Biderman said as recently April that the recession was over, and the economy was expanding.
TGL quoted Charles Biderman of Trimtabs in April 08:
“The US economy is improving rather than deteriorating. The income and employment taxes withheld from the paychecks of all U.S. workers on payrolls rose 3.1% year-over-year in the past two weeks and one day (Friday, April 4 through Friday, April 18). Withholdings on the latest Friday this year were 13.2% higher than withholdings on the same Friday last year, and the growth rate will probably rise further once withholdings for Monday are available. The growth rates we have been measuring are definitely not indicative of an economy sliding into a deep recession. (emphasis added)
I have been terribly unimpressed with his work . . .
TrimTabs: Its a Recession, and Its Already Over (Wrong) (April 2008)
Trimtabs Continues to Abuse Withholding Data (April 2008)
“The Underlevered American Household” (June 2006)