The final April U of M confidence # was a better than expected 65.1, up
from 61.9 in the preliminary reading and 57.3 in March. Since the final
figure consists of 40% of the preliminary reading, it implies that
confidence improved noticeably in just the last two weeks but most of
that gain was in the Outlook which rose 4.2 points as Current Conditions
rose a more modest 1.7 points. One year inflation expectations were
2.8%, down .2% from the preliminary reading but up from 2% in March.
It’s the highest final inflation # since Nov ’08. Confidence is a more
of a coincident index and likely follows the rally in stocks and ‘green
shoots’ talk rather than having any predictive power in helping us
decide where the economy goes from here, particularly the consumer
spending part.

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