Empire survey

The June NY mfr’g survey was weaker than expected at -9.4 vs forecasts of -4.6 and down from -4.6 in May but it’s still well above the record low in March of -38.2. The headline # is not a sum of its parts and the key categories of New Orders and Employment rose a touch. Backlogs were little changed. Inventories fell by almost 4 pts and continues the theme of inventory destocking and the corollary of not seeing inventory stocking yet. On the heels of the rise in commodity prices, Prices Paid rose to the highest since Nov but still remains negative at -5.8. Prices Received also rose, by almost 15 pts to the highest since Jan but is still in negative territory too. Although the data reflects more stabilization at weak levels rather than improvement, the 6 month outlook rose to 47.8 from 43.8, the highest since July ’07 on the hope that less bad will soon turn to good.

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