Doug Kass made a top call this week (mentioned yesterday here).
While I disagree with the timing of his market conclusion — historically, bear markets can run much further than we’ve seen so far — I am in agreement with his economic assessment. I will dig up a few historical analyses of what Secular Bear markets look like; As I have mentioned ad infinitum, 1973/74 is my favored comparison.
I suspect we will see a healthy correction of the market eventually, I remain unconvinced that we have seen the high print yet of this up-leg. Strong Momentum from a deeply oversold condition and popular underinvestment are a powerful and dangerous combination. (We are 60% long/40% cash at the moment).
Here are Doug’s 10 reasons why the rally has run out of steam and has “likely topped:”
1. Cost cuts are a corporate lifeline and so is fiscal stimulus, but both have a defined and limited life.
2. Cost cuts (exacerbated by wage deflation) pose an enduring threat to the consumer, which is still the most significant contributor to domestic growth.
3. The consumer entered the current downcycle exposed and levered to the hilt, and net worths have been damaged and will need to be repaired through higher savings and lower consumption.
4. The credit aftershock will continue to haunt the economy.
5. The effect of the Fed’s monetarist experiment and its impact on investing and spending still remain uncertain.
6. While the housing market has stabilized, its recovery will be muted, and there are few growth drivers to replace the important role taken by the real estate markets in the prior upturn.
7. Commercial real estate has only begun to enter a cyclical downturn.
8. While the public works component of public policy is a stimulant, the impact might be more muted than is generally recognized. There may be less than meets the eye as most of the current fiscal policy initiatives represent transfer payments that have a negative multiplier and create work disincentives.
9. Municipalities have historically provided economic stability — no more.
10. Federal, state and local taxes will be rising as the deficit must eventually be funded, and high-tax health and energy bills also loom.
Good stuff, Doug.
Kass: Market Has Likely Topped