S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index

The June S&P/CaseShiller 20 city Home Price Index fell 15.44% y/o/y, better than the expected fall of 16.4%. The index rose 1.4% m/o/m, the 2nd month in a row of m/o/m gains. From the record high, prices are down by 31.3%, off the high to low drop of 32.6% at the low in April. Every city except Detroit and Las Vegas saw m/o/m gains with Phoenix and Las Vegas again leading the y/o/y drop. The $8,000 tax credit (and $10,000 in CA) coinciding with a seasonally better time for housing sales (the data is not seasonally adjusted) and a smaller contribution from foreclosures (about 1/3 now down from 1/2 in the early part of the year) relative to a few months before are helping to stabilize pricing. The question looking out the next few quarters is what the influence will be from a catch up in home prices to the downside in the prime area and the end to foreclosure moratoriums at many banks.

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