The minutes from the FOMC Sept meeting didn’t reveal much in terms of gaining any clues of when they might raise interest rates in light of their more optimistic view of the economy in terms of expecting 2nd half improvement that they expect to continue into ’10. Based on their still sanguine view of inflation due to weak labor markets and the “significant under utilization of resources,” they showed no inclination to change monetary policy anytime soon. They went over all the tools they have to unwind their massive monetary accommodation when the time comes but they clearly have no idea when that might be. IMO, yes the unemployment rate remains high and many do not think rates should be hiked under those circumstances but we are currently living under emergency interest rate levels that were reached when we were worried about the collapse of the entire financial system. While things are still tough I agree, is the fire still raging?
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