$ breaks lower/stock bears lowest since ’04

Notwithstanding $ comments from Bernanke (hollow I know based on the minutes yesterday) last week and policy and potential policy steps in Taiwan, Brazil, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam and Russia to reverse the strength in their currencies, the $ index is rolling over again to a fresh 15 1/2 month low and the $ is also lower against Asian currencies. In response, gold is rallying for the 17th day in the last 18 to a fresh record high and continues to extend its outperformance relative to the S&P 500 where bullishness on stocks grew significantly over the past week according to the II data. Bulls rose to 50.6% from 46.1% to the highest since Sept and Bears fell to 17.6% from 21.3% last week and 26.7% the week before. Bears are now at the lowest level since June ’04. ABC confidence fell 2 pts to -47. The MBA said purchases bounced 9.6% off a 12 yr low but refi’s fell 9.5% even as 30 yr rates held steady at 4.82%, a 6 month low.

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