NBER Members: Recession Over, Date TBD

I am still digging out from my trip, but this certainly caught my eye: NBER’s Hall Says Recession May Be Over, Month Unclear.

Two of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee members, including its chairman, now say the recession is over, even if the precise date is unclear.

Robert Hall, chair of NBER’s Recession Dating Committee, said as much in a recent Bloomberg interview:

“Today’s report makes it seem that the trough in employment will be around this month.  The trough in output was probably some time in the summer. The committee will need to balance the midyear date for output against the end-of-year date for employment.”

Another member of the committee, Harvard University professor Jeffrey Frankel, estimated the most recession end date as midyear.

The key factors:  Improving labor market and expanding output.

Details at link . . .


NBER’s Hall Says Recession May Be Over, Month Unclear
Steve Matthews
Bloomberg, Dec. 4 2009

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