I had lunch earlier this week with Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI. Our offices are a block apart, and from time to time, we get together to shake our heads in collective astonishment over the economic questions of the day.
We are both data driven, and look askance at the squishy gut approaches to economic forecasting. We were discussing an entire class of issues where many (if not most) observers consistently make the wrong call. Not just a panicked crowd selling into lows, but broad, erroneous perspectives on recessions (most missed it) and recoveries (ditto) along with all other manner of geopolitical issues.
Our conversation happened upon the following question — where we each expected the bulk of investors to be likely to make the wrong bet:
Over the next decade, what nation or region is most likely to have a spectacular implosion?
2. Europe, EU
4. Russia Japan
5. United States
The implosion could be an lingering budget problems to full economic collapse, or a military overthrow or outright revolution.
What would your answer be?