Overestimation and Cognitive Error

May 20, 2010 10:30am by Barry Ritholtz

I love this quote:

“Overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it.”

I have to work that into my presentation today: “unfortunately. their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize erroneous conclusions.

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