Bond Bubble ?

Yesterday, I asked if Bonds Resemble Dot Com Stocks?.  The night before, I mentioned it on Fast Money, so I got to beat a few others who wrote it up. (Note that mine is a nuanced view, and not a full bubble claim).

I could not help but be amused by who is — and is not — in this camp:

In the full blown bubble camp are Nassim Taleb, Doug Kass, Jeremy Siegel and Jack Crook, Fortune and Smart Money;  Disagreeing with this notion is Brad DeLong and Pragmatic Capitalism; Minyanville is somewhat ambiguous, as is Zero Hedge.

In the Bonds are attractive in a deflationary environment are David Rosenberg and Gary Shilling;

According to the latest Commitments of Traders data, net positions in the 10-year and the long bond do not appear to be at extreme levels.  Large Speculators are still net short both of these markets.


Bonds have been in a 30 year bull market, ever since Volcker broke the back of inflation; The 10 year peaked in Fall 1980 over 15% yield, today they are at 2.6%.

10 year Bond, 1980-2010

via Economagic

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