Hirsch’s WTF Forecast: Dow 38,820

Last week, we noted Robert Prechter’s Dow 2,000 forecast.

Today, we are going to the other end of the scale: A wild Dow 38k forecast from the usually sedate Jeff Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac (UPDATE: Full report here)


“The Dow Jones Industrial Average will surge to 38,820 in an eight-year “super boom” beginning in 2017, according to Jeffrey A. Hirsch, editor in chief of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac.”

“All previous major economic booms and secular bull markets were driven by peace, inflation from war and crisis spending, and ubiquitous enabling technologies that created major cultural paradigm shifts and sustained prosperity,” he wrote in a press release sent with the 44th edition of the book.

Hirsch’s forecast comes more than a decade after James K. Glassman and Kevin A. Hassett predicted the Dow would rise to 36,000 by 2005 in “Dow 36,000,” a New York Times bestseller. The 114-year-old average ended 1999 at 11,497.12 and sank as low as 7,286.27 in 2002 following the Internet bubble. The Dow then jumped to a record 14,164.53 in 2007 and fell to 6,547.05 in March 2009 after the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.”

I have no idea what he is thinking, but I will ping Jeff and inquire as to his thoughts on this. I assume he is in the “end of the secular Bear Market” camp in 2017, then a 1982 like ramp up. I do not disagree with the thesis (I’ve been saying that since 2002) but i don’t know how he gets a 3-4 bagger from there.

So I have to file this under “Really, really bad calls.” I’ll mea culpa if we come anywhere near 30,000 by 2025 . . .


Dow ‘Super Boom’ to Send Gauge to 38,820, Hirsch Says
Tara Lachapelle and Nikolaj Gammeltoft
Bloomberg, Sept. 27 2010

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