We will have NFP data out in half an hour — Today’s data may prove especially tricky, as there are lots of seasonal adjustments (December) and plenty of cross currents.
The ADP numbers have raised expectations slightly, but given their track record (ADP vs initial BLS data) and the ongoing layoffs at the State & Local level not captured by ADP, its tough to get a read by using their numbers.
Consensus for December Payrolls is +155,000 after November’s 120,000. (Bloomberg’s survey ranged from +80,000 to +220,000). We have been seeing positive revisions, so look to see what the prior 60 days ends up.
Temp help, wages paid, and hours worked are our favorite leading indicators (some will argue that wages paid lags, but in the present Labor context I disagree).
Note that the recession that began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 saw a loss of 9 million jobs, and perhaps another 10 million people who want full time work move to part time status.
Two other metrics with broad economic impact worth thinking about:
1) Unemployment and the Labor Force participation Rate: We saw this in the 2003-07 rally, where Unemployment plunged due to exiting workers (Denominator shrinkage versus Numerator improvement). Some Labor theorists have suggested we wills ee a replay of this as retiring Baby Boomers make the UE rate look better than it is.
2) There are 10s of millions more who left jobs paying X and now working at 60% X. The impact on total income earned and therefore how much consumption has been substantial. It was hidden during the 2000s by the massive RE credit expansion; the credit crash revealed this.
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UPDATE: 8:30am
U.S. employers added 200,000 jobs in December. The unemployment rate fell to 8.5%;
Private-sector job growth up 212,000
More to come later . . .
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Employment situation report released at 8:30am
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