Dallas mfr’g goes negative, Homeownership rate falls again

The last regional April Fed manufacturing survey, the Dallas figure, is out and it went negative to -3.4 from +10.8 in March and well below expectations of +8.0. New Orders, Backlogs, Employment, Shipments, Production and Prices Paid and Received all fell from March. Inventories though did rise. The Company Outlook did fall 14 pts to -4.5. Separately but I think of note, the home ownership rate in the US in Q1 fell to 65.4% from 66% in Q4 and is now exactly back to the 57 year average (I only have data back to 1965) of 65.4%. It’s down from the peak of 69.2% in Q2 2004 and is at the lowest level since Q1 1997. Assuming as in markets things don’t just fall back to trend after a bubble and always overshoot, expect the secular decline in the homeownership rate to further decline before it then settles back to the long term average.

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