Maybe it was an interest in dinosaurs and astronomy as a kid, but historical time frames was a concept I was familiar with. Perhaps that was the basis of this week’s time frame discussion of Trading vs Investing. Understanding the very l o n g term is an important concept, in terms of getting what the long cycles can look like as well as crowd psychology.
These days, the crowd is suffering from a malaise. They are fearful of losing their jobs, not interested in buying homes, deeply concerned about the future. Following a Great Recession, this is to be expected. So too is the rise of the End of Worlders and the Zombie Bears. These folks are best ignored, as they are money losers who can damage your outlook.
I bring all of this up, because I spent this weekend looking at new start ups. I had lunches and dinners with young entrepreneurs and techies, and their angel funders. (Josh describes all of the start ups here). The ideas, the people, the energy, the competencies are just astounding. It is impossible to be long term negative when you see what is coming down the pipe.
If you want to understand the future of America, if you want to grasp why we are not doomed, then you MUST spend some time with entrepreneurs like these. The creativity, business acumen, technological insights are uplifting, energizing, empowering. We have a fertile crescent of ideas, not just in Silicon Valley but in pockets throughout the United States, like NY, Boston, Miami, San Diego, Denver, Atlanta. That is where economic growth will come from.
YOU CAN SEE THE FUTURE FROM HERE AND ITS NOT REMOTELY BLEAK.
The youth of America are full of ideas and energy. They don’t give a shit that their parents fucked everything up — they are going to steam roll over the old order and replace it with one of their own. They understand that future is not about the past. They know that they are a business of one, that no company or government is ever going to offer them economic security. They are their own team, brand and idea factory.
There are lots of things people are rightfully upset about — I lost my voice ranting last night about eejit economists who think the crisis was caused by “predatory borrowing” (it wasn’t). But that’s not what is going to be propelling us forward.
Don’t look to DC — the political debates there are laughable. Its like watching two different T-Rex debating who gets to eat the dead plant eater unaware of the the giant asteroid hurtling their way. Their argument gets resolved when the asteroid turns their summer into nuclear winter.
The old order, the political hacks and hangers on, the whiners and recession porn stars and permabears — the dinosaurs — all have no idea WTF is coming their way. They are going to be mowed down like so many extinct species before them. They cannot see the asteroid hurtling their way from the deep black depths of space.
The Future of America is coming. It is not being driven by Goldman Sachs or the GOP or Obama. That’s old school, the old order, yesterday. It’s coming, and coming sooner than most people imagine.
When you get run over, don’t say you weren’t warned . . .
Tales from Lindzonpalooza (TRB, April 14, 2012)
After a recession, the least rational rise (temporarily) to prominence. Ignore them. (Washington Post, June 4, 2011 )