I’ve been meaning to address this for some time, and today is as a good a time as any.
Over the years, I have participated in interviews at Yahoo Finance — its always a fun time, Aaron Task, Jeff Macke, Henry Blodget, Dan Gross & Co. are very sharp guys. Its usually a short, smart interview with insightful questions and fun topics.
Then there are the Yahoo (almost message board) comments.
I cannot tell you what a wonderful tell — just top notch contrary indicator — these have been over the years. Check out Sucker’s Rally Alert: Dow Going Below 10,000 (Aug 12, 2008) — its too bad that when they redid the site, Yahoo lost the Incredibly Bullish comment stream, just as we were heading right into the collapse.
The opposite played out, on March 9th 2009: “Big Bear Market Rally Coming,” Says Noted Bear Barry Ritholtz (recorded March 9th webcast Mar 10, 2009 08:35am) The comments were incredibly negative to any sort of good news.
More recently, we did Bear Days of August Might be Over, Says Barry Ritholtz in September 2010, just as QE2 was ramping. (These comments were not much better: House Prices Are Still 10% Too High, Says Barry Ritholtz).
Which brings me to this week’s appearance. 2 negative pieces, one positive
You have to go read some of the comments — especially on the America Is So Not In Decline — they are simply hilarious examples of cognitive foibles, selective perceptions, bias and just plain human silliness you will ever see. I tried pushing back on a few of them, but its a tide of ignorance, and I only have 2 thumbs to stick in the dike.
Read ’em and understand why most investors under-perform . . .
You MUST read the comment streams at Yahoo Tech Ticker (September 3rd, 2010)