The S&P500 has given up almost all of its gains for the year, is down 7.9 percent since May 1st, and has fallen 11 of the 13 trading days during the month. The S&P500′s Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements, is currently at 22.97, a low matched only 19 times since 1990. When taking into account initial lows and clusters, the RSI has been down here only 7 times prior to the current reading.
Though we can’t rule out a nice bounce beginning even tomorrow, it just doesn’t feel like the market has had the big flush which sets up for a decent sustained rally. This is reflected, in our opinion, in the relatively low level of the VIX given such low RSI readings (see chart).
Market bearishness is increasing but no panic yet. Could be wrong.