How Important Is May Employment Situation Report?

Is this the big one?

That is the question that a few smart observers have raised, wondering if this NFP report might be the one that convinces folks that the overall direction of the economy has changed.

Have a look at this chart from David Leonhardt at Economix:

 

Net new jobs has clearly been on a downslide since the peak 5 months ago.

A variety of other data points suggest a slowing of the economy, but not an imminent recession. However, it wont take much int he way of negative data to raise those fears again.

The overall trend in em0ployment has been muddling along, 100-200k for most of the past year. Consensus is for 150,000 new jobs following the punk April report of 115,000.

This month, I am closely watching revisions, temp help and hours worked.

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Employment situation report released at 8:30am

 

 

 

 

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