Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Initial Jobless Claims total 374k, 11k less than expected and below 380k for the 1st time since mid May.
2) Within the June jobs report, avg workweek ticks up .1 and avg hourly earnings up 2.0% y/o/y, matching the best in 6 mo’s.
3) June vehicle sales total 14.05mm SAAR, a touch better than estimates of 13.9mm.
4) China cuts rates again. I include only them in the positives from a short term economic standpoint because they still have room to influence behavior thru policy.
5) China PMI services index rises to 56.7 from 55.2.
6) China’s PMI mfr’g index falls to 50.2 from 50.4 but was slightly above the est of 49.9.
7) India’s June PMI up slightly to 55 from 54.8
8) Japan’s Q2 Tankan report at -1 better than expectations of -4.
9) Ireland is back!, at least for 3 mo’s as they sell short term bills for 1st time since Sept ’10.
Negatives:
1) US payrolls in June climb only 80k vs est of 100k bringing 3 month avg to 78k vs ytd avg of 150k and vs 153k avg in 2011.
2) ISM mfr’g falls below 50 for the 1st time since July ’09 at 49.7. New Orders and Exports within drop below 50.
3) ISM services index at 52.1 is the weakest since Jan ’10 and below est of 53. Export Orders fall below 50.
4) Notwithstanding a new low in mortgage rates, refi apps fall 8.4% to a 4 week low and purchase apps rise just .6%.
5) Spanish 10 yr yield round trips, back to near 7% level of last Thurs before EU summit results. Italian bonds come close and the German 2 yr yield closes below zero for 1st time.
6) Mfr’g PMI’s in Taiwan and South Korea fall below 50.
7) The BoE and ECB again spit in the wind hoping this time they won’t get wet.
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