Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Continuing the Draghi put rally, the Spanish IBEX trades higher each day this week and closes at 4 month high. It takes the Italian MIB index with it. 2) US Retail Sales bounce back in July after previous 3 months in a row of declines.
3) Initial Jobless Claims about in line at 366k but below 370k for 2nd week and clean of July auto distortions.
4) US CPI rate of change benign in July.
5) July IP up .6% (but June revised lower) led by auto’s.
6) NAHB builder survey rises 2 pts to 37, highest since Feb ’07.
7) Multi family starts rise in July as do permits for multi and single family.
8) UoM confidence in Aug ticks up led by current conditions at best since Jan ’08.
9) India inflation less than expected, Sensex near 5 month high.
Negatives:
1) If Fed’s goal is to keep rates as low as possible, what do they do now if reason for recent jump is temporary calm in Europe? QE3 alive and well after voting member Williams says he wants it.
2) NY and Philly mfr’g indices for Aug show contraction, Philly for a 4th straight month.
3) Single family home starts down 35k in July.
4) MBA said purchase apps fall for 5th straight week to lowest since Feb.
5) Economic outlook within UoM confidence falls to lowest of the yr.
6) Inventory to sales ratio within Business Inventories rise to most since Feb ’10 due to sales drop.
7) PPI both headline and core rise above est.
8) Euro zone Q2 GDP contracts .2% q/o/q.
9) German ZEW falls to lowest of the yr.
10) Japan’s Q2 GDP rises less than est.
11) FDI in China falls for 8th month in past 9 in July.
12) AAA says gasoline price moves up another .04 to $3.72, to the highest in 3 mo’s.
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