Political Polls, Data Analysis and Outliers: Discuss

A quick update on recent posts:

First off, the responses to my GOP insider’s email (GOP Sours on Romney) surprised me. I assumed — wrongly apparently —  that after 23,877 posts I would get the benefit of the doubt when I source an item. Regardless, the post was validated the next morning by Politico, whose discussion of infighting, leaking, and disdain for Romney in an article Inside the campaign: How Mitt Romney stumbled, was the talk of DC. (We haven’t even seen the fall out of the leaked video, shown here).

This campaign just got a lot more interesting.

Last, a few questions came up on the polling data. I have found most of the polling data across the board to be mediocre, so I instead rely on 2 different sets of polls: 1) Real Clear Politics All Polls; and 2) Nate Silver’s 538. RCP is a composite of ALL the polls, and so theoretically shows all denominations; 538 was the most accurate pollster the past few elections.


RCP All Polls


538 Electoral College Map


Discuss . . .



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