Following the very mixed bag of results in most of the regional mfr’g survey’s, the Chicago area said its mfr’g index remained below 50 at 49.9 vs 49.7 in Sept and below expectations of 51.0. After falling 7.4 pts in Sept, New Orders rose by 2.9 pts to 50.6. Backlogs were up by 2.7 pts to 44.3 but obviously still well below 50. Employment fell by 1.7 pts to 50.3, the lowest since Dec ’09. Inventories fell to 49.6 from 51.1. Prices Paid was down almost 4 pts but at 59.3 still remains above its 6 mo avg. Bottom line, ahead of tomorrow’s national ISM and after seeing all the regional mfr’g surveys, there is little reason to think there was any improvement in Oct from Sept when the ISM unexpectedly rose almost 2 pts to 51.5. Expectations are 51.0.
