The Conference Board Consumer Confidence # for Nov was 73.7, about in line with expectations and up modestly from the 73.1 print in Oct. It’s the best since Feb ’08 and the improvement is most seen in the answers to the labor questions where those that said jobs were Plentiful rose to 11.2, the most since Sept ’08. Those that said jobs were Hard To Get were unchanged but held at the lowest since April. Also of encouragement, those that plan to buy a home within 6 mo’s rose 1.5 pts to 6.9. the highest on record. Those that plan to buy a car/truck fell .7 pts. Also of note, those that plan to buy a home appliance such as a fridge, tv, or air conditioner rose to a new high. One year inflation expectations ticked lower to 5.6% from 5.8%, a 4 month low, consistent with the lowest gasoline prices since July. Bottom line, November confidence, depending on where you live and who you voted for, captured a lot of mixed emotions and still held at multi year highs. What this means for actual holiday spending remains to be seen but the mood for now is ok. I say just ‘ok’ because confidence is still below the 10 year average of 77.0 and the 20 year average of 93.1.
Richmond mfr’g bucks trend
Following negative readings in the NY, Philly and Dallas mfr’g surveys, the Richmond Fed said its region saw a jump from -7 to +9 which was well above expectations of -9. New Orders rose to +11 from -6 and Employment went to +3 from -5 with little change in the Workweek. Backlogs though fell 6 pts to -9. Both Prices Paid and Received were lower. The 6 month outlook rose for shipments, new orders, backlogs and cap ex. Bottom line, with just the KC, Milwaukee and Chicago mfr’gs reports to be seen this week before next week’s national ISM release, today’s # gives hope that we can see an above 50 print in the ISM. This said, the Richmond survey is very volatile as while Nov was +9 vs -7 in Oct, Sept was +4, Aug -9, July -17, June -1 and May +3.