The chart above, courtesy of the Merrill’s chief Technical Analyst, shows the relationship between long term secular bear markets and valuation as measured by price to earnings (P/E) ratio on a monthly chart.
This is the primary reason I am unconvinced that the secular bear is over, but the length we have endured so far is why I believe we are closer to the end than the beginning.
If you want a more specific forecast date for when I think it will end, my best guess is sometime between next Tuesday and 2017.
Monthly Chsart Portfolio of Global Markets
Mary Ann Bartels
Merrill Lynch, February 13, 2013