A quick note on some of our commentary in April — it has been an interesting month for TBP.
On April 9th, I mentioned that the Great Rotation theme was incorrect: It was not stocks into bonds, as is so commonly claimed. Rather, it was a New Great Rotation: Commodities into Bonds. Since then, Bond yields have plummeted and gold has collapsed. Had I followed my own insights and put on a Gold short/Bond Long trade, it would have made some money. Alas, we are investors not traders.
This led to a comment asking the question: What Are Gold’s Fundamentals ? Most of the Gold investors I see have a flawed understanding of what drives gold prices. That was followed with World’s Biggest ETF/Contrarian Indicator: GLD > SPY. As far as contrary indicators go, this was similar to Pimco Total Return Bond Fund surpasses Vanguard S&P500 fund to become the largest mutual fund back in October 2002.
We did a few interviews as to why Gold was collapsing, including this one on BNN (Gold country). It is nuanced, and apparently not what people were expecting.
Back shortly . . .