Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (May 3, 2013)

Succinct summation of the events for the week ending May 3, 2013.

Positives:

1. The markets hit new highs with the S&P 500 > 1600, Dow over 15,000.
2. April Payrolls +165k. Upward revision of 114k to the February and March. Unemployment rate falls to 7.5% 3. Average hourly earnings rise .2%, in line and average duration of unemployment falls.
4. Jobless claims come in at the lowest level since 2008. Claims drop 18,000 to 324,000
5. First time in 17 years the market hasn’t had a 5% correction from January through May.
6. Average 30 year mortgage rate fell to 4 month lows of 3.60%, prompting refi applications to rise 2.8% (most since January) .
7. FOMC minutes indicate the Fed will maintain its pace of $85B monthly bond buying (or may do even more).
8. March personal spending grows 0.2% v flat expectations.
9. Treasury yields hit 2013 low (so much for the “Great Rotation.”)
10. Case/Shiller home price index rises to highest since Dec ’08. Home prices rise 9.32% year-over-year; Home prices rise 1.24% month-over-month
11. Italian 10 year bond auction delivers the lowest yield since October 2010.
12. Ford sales up 17.9% in U.S. in April (year over year). GM April sales up 11%.
13. ISM manufacturing fell less than expected to 50.7. This beat economists’ expectations of a fall to 50.5. (glass half full)
14. Pending home sales jump 1.5% v expectations of +1%;
15. Stoxx 600 rises for the 11th straight month, the longest winning streak since 1997.

Negatives:

1. Euro-area Q4 household savings rate falls to the lowest levels since 1999.
2. Average work week falls to 34.4 from 34.6 hours; Labor participation rate = 63.3%, lowest since 1979
3. EU manufacturing at 46.7 remains firmly below 50.
4. Euro-area April economic confidence falls to 88.6 v expectations of 89.3.
5. March personal income grows 0.2% v expectations of 0.4%.
6. EU unemployment reaches another record high of 12.1%.
7. March Factory Orders fall 4% vs est of down 2.9% (February revised lower by 1.1%). Non defense cap goods orders ex aircraft revised lower y/o/y.
8. ISM mfr’g falls to 50.7, slowest since Dec. Employment component also falls to lowest since Nov at 50.2.
9. Chicago PMI slides to 49 v expectations of 52.5.
10. China PMI comes in at 50.6 v expectations of 50.7.Japan March industrial output rises 0.2% v expectations of +0.4%.
11. Greece retail sales -14.4% v expectations of 15.2%.
12. German retail sales in March in line but down .3% m/o/m  (Feb revised lower by 0.6).

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