Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (October 4, 2013)

Succinct Summations week ending October 4, 2013.

 

Positives:

1. Despite the government shutdown, equity markets were pretty calm, the Nasdaq hit a new 52-week high.
2. The national average price for a gallon of gas has declined for 30 straight days.
3. A 13 bp drop in average 30 yr mortgage rate, MBA refi apps rose 3.1% on the week.
4. Four-week moving average for jobless claims is the lowest since mid-2007.
5. NFP comes in at, doh!
6. Chicago PMI came in at 55.7 v expectations of 54, boosted by Detroit, of course.
7. ISM manufacturing rose to 56.2, the highest level since April 2011.
8. Dallas fed manufacturing index came in at 12.8, well above expectations of 5.5.
9. Japanese manufacturing PMI prints highest number since February 2011, score 1 for Abenomics
10. IMF, EU and ECB bless Portugal’s post bailout progress and their 10 yr yield drops a sharp 43 bps on the week to 6.4%, a 6 ½ week low.

Negatives:

1. Government shutdown continues. While its temporary, it’s a big inconvenience for those businesses that rely on government data or contracts
2. Mortgage applications fell 0.4%, down 5 of the past 8 weeks.
3. ADP came in at 166k expectations of 180k, job market still lousy.
4. September Vehicle sales cool off a bit to 15.21mm (est = 15.60mm) – the lowest since April
5. Prior ADP revised down to 159k v 176k.
6. Non-manufacturing ISM comes in at 54.4 v expectations of 57.
7. Initial jobless claims rose 1k last week to 308k.
8. HSBC China PMI came in at 50.2 v expectations of 51.2, still expanding albeit slowly.

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