10 Wednesday AM Reads

Our early morning train reads, brought to you directly without a middle man taking 10% of our links:

• The real reason the Fed is eager to raise interest rates now (Quartzsee also Onto The Next Question (Tim Duy’s Fed Watch)
• AUM Growth Is Hedge Funds’ #1 Goal (CIOsee also State Pensions Funding Gap: Challenges Persist (Pew Trusts)
• How To Tell Good Studies From Bad? Bet On Them (FiveThirtyEight)
• Are You Superstitious? Are You Stupid? (Bloombergbut see Dunning-Kruger in Groups (NeuroLogica)
• The Manual Gearbox Preservation Society: Do You Drive Stick? Fans of Manual Transmission Can’t Let Go (WSJ)

Catch my dulcet tones this am co-hosting Bloomberg Surveillance from 7 to 10 am.

Continues here


What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. VennData commented on Nov 11

    Rubio Endorses Rep. Tom Cotton for Senate.


    That in and of itself disqualifies Rubio. Mr “Stop teh Iran deal” even though we set it up so that we could only stop it in the first place. (No wonder Cotton was so loud and proud on the Iran deal, he’s running for Senate. A statesman.)

    The same week Netanyahu comes crawling to Obama for more US taxpayer financed aid.

    These guy’s have no shame. No Philosophy. Everyday is a new dawn.

  2. VennData commented on Nov 11

    Obama laughs at Ben Carson saying the media doesn’t pick on him.


    “…White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said Monday that he disagreed that the media has been easier on President Obama than on Republican presidential candidate Dr. Ben Carson…”


    Ben Carson off course has a full ridiculing back at his West Point recruting office

  3. rd commented on Nov 11

    “Duning-Kruger Effect in Groups” – I believe the Wikipeda definition of that phrase is “Republican Presidential Primary Debate”

    From Ted Cruz:
    “If you look at the history of America, there are three levers that government has had to facilitate economic growth. The first is tax reform. And as you noted, I have rolled out a bold and simple flat tax: 10 percent for every American that would produce booming growth and 4.9 million new jobs within a decade.

    The second element is regulatory reform, pulling back the armies of regulators that have descended like locusts on small businesses.

    And the third element is sound money. Every time we’ve pursued all three of those — whether in the 1920s with Calvin Coolidge or the 1960s with JFK or the 1980s with Ronald Reagan — the result has been incredible economic growth. We have done it before, and with leadership, we can do it again.”

    These candidates appear to be trying to double down on W’s policies since he was unable to accomplish the full effect of the economic stability resulting from the Coolidge-Hoover years, Unfortunately, the evil Fed got in the way of the collapse of the US financial system and economy in 2008-9, preventing a repeat of the financial and economic success of the 1930s and 1970s, which are generally remembered fondly by everyone who participated in them, Once Jimmy Carter nominated Paul Volcker who then proceeded to institute “sound money” by raising interest rates to soul-crushing mid-teens levels so that Reagan could then run massive budget deficits to pay those interest rates (deficits don’t matter unless they occur during a Democratic presidency).

    I find it interesting that the Eisenhower years are NEVER mentioned by any Republican candidate since they represent some of the best economic and financial periods in American history. Although, I suppose this is because it is obvious that those data must be in error since they coincide with the highest income tax rates in American history as well, which makes it impossible to have a good economy.


    • Iamthe50percent commented on Nov 11

      Yes, indeed! However, in all fairness, the fact that at the end of WWII the United States was the only major country not bombed into oblivion or overrun by foreign armies (both in the case of Germany and Japan) had a lot to do with it. Also the positive balance of trade as the Marshall Plan rebuilt Europe.

    • rd commented on Nov 11

      That is all true, but I think the current crop of GOP candidates would have been able to screw it up anyway. I think much of the blather about “Making America Great Again” forgets that it became so when the rest of the world elected to destroy itself by fighting wars with each other. The US was able to use its moat both times to avoid getting drawn in until much of the initial destruction was well underway, or in WW I’s case, largely complete.

      Much of the world was destroyed in WW I with the US coming out of it with very few losses. However, poor policies (starting with the Treaty of Versailles) positioned the US for the Great Depression and dictatorships in many countries that led to WW II. The Truman-Eisenhower-JFK regime after WW II did a much better job of keeping the world in order and positioning the US for long-term success. LBJ-Nixon war expansion in Vietnam started to unravel that success story at home and abroad.

      BTW – Cullen Roche is ticked that the GOP presidential candidates (without naming them) are burbling about going back on the gold standard: http://www.pragcap.com/why-no-one-should-support-the-gold-standard/

    • willid3 commented on Nov 11

      pointing at Coolidge from the 20s as a economic goal post? really, one wonders if Cruz ever ready US history. especially the part about how the roaring 20s lead into the cashing 30s? i know he is from Canada so maybe that explains it. and he is a lawyer. so there is that too.

      i suppose Cruz hopes that the collapse that happens on his watch wont be blamed on him.

  4. VennData commented on Nov 11

    “The growth that we don’t have makes—makes the deficit grow” – Jeb Bush

    “It was—get the—kind of the—anyway. We had—it—and I talked to a banker there.” – Jeb Bush

    “We have a country that’s going to hell” – Jeb Bush


    “Donald—Donald’s wrong on this. He is absolutely wrong on this,” he said. Mixing up Trump’s already muddled concept a bit, he continued: “The idea that it’s a good idea for Putin to be in Syria, let ISIS take out Assad, and then Putin will take out ISIS? I mean, that’s like a board game, that’s like playing Monopoly or something.” But the alternative that Bush offered—a no-fly zone and a commitment that “we have to lead, we have to be involved”—sounded a bit like throwing out the Monopoly board in favor of a staring contest.

    …channeling Bibi at the UN! STARE! STARE REPUBLICANS!

    No matter who gets the nod. Netanyahu for VEEP!

    • Iamthe50percent commented on Nov 11

      “We have a country that’s going to hell – Jeb Bush”

      He’s telling the truth for once! And he wants to be the engineer on that hell-bound train.

    • VennData commented on Nov 12

      LOL. five percent unemployement, shrinking deficits, 13 million jobs created, record GDP, record corporate profits, energy independence, the World behind Obama on Russian sanctions, nuclear deal…

      If this is hell. GImme more,

  5. rd commented on Nov 11

    BTW – I am still waiting to hear Trump demand to see Cruz’s birth certificate to prove that he is a natural born US citizen by Birther standards.

    • willid3 commented on Nov 11

      well it goes with a lot of other things ignore. like how will agriculture produce crops without workers? and whats the plan when oil runs out? or when a few major ocean side cities become, lets say, more ocean side than land? or how will eliminating social security help folks when they retire? or medicare? wall street seems really interested in the former, but insurance companies have 0 in the latter. and how will they create the health care market where the majority have no access to any information to make informed decisions. that will only lead to the current solution. dont go to the doctor unless you absolutely have too

  6. rd commented on Nov 11

    Single payer health insurance makes this benefits argument almost non-existent in Canada.

    I think the US greatly under-estimates how much friction the lack of good health insurance coverage in the US puts into the economy, especially into the sole proprietor and small business part of the economy. It is a primary reason why the US is trailing many other countries on labor mobility and small business formation.

    • willid3 commented on Nov 11

      is lack of labor mobility a bug or a feature? its like the lack of retirement plans (pensions – 401ks etc) a bug or a feature? seems like a lot of companies are dropping or never had health care. and pensions are already gone, and 401ks arent replacing them, not really

    • Whammer commented on Nov 11

      I think this is a very good article about Denmark, from a libertarian site. https://niskanencenter.org/blog/double-edged-denmark/

      The essence of the argument is that a robust social safety net goes hand in hand with a friendly climate for business. It backs up rd’s point regarding friction.

  7. Jojo commented on Nov 11

    Re: Do You Drive Stick? Fans of Manual Transmission Can’t Let Go
    Gave up a stick 20 years ago. No real interest in returning to stick driving, although I do tend to drive the automatic like a stick. [lol]

    • intlacct commented on Nov 11

      Half the people I know have smoked marijuana. Arresting anyone for this ‘crime’ is beyond idiotic. (I understand she was the dealer but so what?

    • Jojo commented on Nov 12

      This wasn’t hard to find in the article! Whew.

      The probable cause statement said there police found, “31.5 grams of packaged cocaine, 126 grams of high grade marijuana, 29 ‘ecstasy’ tablets, methamphetamine and a 60 doses of a drug similar to LSD.

  8. Jojo commented on Nov 11

    Could Your Social Media Footprint Step On Your Credit History?
    November 04, 2015
    Alina Selyukh

    In December 1912, financier John Pierpont “J.P.” Morgan testified in Washington before the Bank and Currency Committee of the House of Representatives investigating Wall Street’s workings of the time.

    The fascinating record produced from the testimony called him the “uncrowned king of finance” and recounted this exchange between Morgan and the committee’s lawyer, Samuel Untermyer:

    Untermyer: “Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?”
    Morgan: “No, sir, the first thing is character.”
    Untermyer: “Before money or property?”
    Morgan: “Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it.”

    Further on, Morgan also produces this financial proverb material: “A man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom.”

    A century later, this memory has found new life in a growing number of stories about alternative ways of calculating credit scores, apparently promoted by the co-founder of a startup called Lenddo.


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